Gale Warning 73, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

.SHORT RANGE...
WE AGREE WITH THE MID SHIFT THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL OCCUR
FOR MOST OF SE ALASKA STARTING TONIGHT. ZONE 17 WILL STILL HAVE
SOME EFFECTS BUT A COMBINATION OF HIGH WIND...HEAVY SNOW...WIND
CHILL AND POOR VISIBILITY WILL HAMMER THE PANHANDLE. FIRST THE
INGREDIENTS FOR TAKU WIND APPEAR TO PEAK AT 12Z SAT BASED ON THE
MOUNTAIN WAVE PROGRAM. NEXT HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH THE ONSET EARLY MORNING FOR THE ANNETTE 3-ZONES THROUGH SAT.
SNOW WILL BEGIN FURTHER NORTH THROUGH SAT WITH OVERRUNNING BUT
THE HEAVY STUFF HITS JUNEAU SAT NIGHT. INCREDIBLY THE TAKU WIND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES INTO SAT NIGHT SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO MERGE THE
HIGH WIND AND HEAVY SNOW INTO COMBINED WINTER STORM FOR THIS
EVENT. WE WILL EXECUTE THIS SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS SHIFT.

WE WILL MAINTAIN THE STORM FORCE WIND IN THE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW.  COLD AIR FUNNELS
REPORTED BY A PILOT TOPS 1000 FT THIS MORNING NEAR COVERDEN
REQUIRED A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING.

.LONG RANGE...
THE UKMET AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE THE BEST MODELS FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE AND HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...BUT DUE TO ADDRESSING
THE URGENT SHORT TERM WINTER STORM WE WILL ONLY HAVE SMALL
CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE GRIDS. SNOW AND SOME WIND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS THE SCREAMING MESSAGE THAT WILL CONTINUE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM 18>29.
MARINE...SMW 13. GALES 11>51. SMCR 52.
         HVY FREEZ SPRAY 11>36 43 51.

KJH/JC