Gale Warning 60, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...WEATHER FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND AT ABOUT THE GUSTAVUS-SITKA LINE AT 11 AM AND
CONTINUING EASTWARD.  SNOW FALLING OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND IT
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO MOVE ONSHORE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE WARNINGS
BEING ENDED EARLY AROUND NOON AND THE EASTERN MOST WILL LIKELY
END THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING.

THE MAIN LOW YET JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE SUCKLING AND SLOWLY
DRIFTING EAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SIDE
WILL SPREAD SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS INTO YAKUTAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MAIN PUSH OF SHOWERS IS ALSO JUST
STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL ZONES AS WELL.  SO SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH BEST AREAS ON THE WEST SLOPES FOR THE ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

FORTHCOMING IS THE NEXT SYSTEM PRESENTLY WITH THE TRIPLE POINT IN
THE VICINITY OF 52/153...THAT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW TO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.  THIS WILL START TOMORROW AS
WELL TO BEGIN TO ENHANCE THE NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND START TO RE-ESTABLISH THE ARCTIC FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BMB

.LONG RANGE...THE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AT THE END OF THE
SHORT RANGE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNDER GOOD JET
SUPPORT...TRACK ENE OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
EARLY TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
MIXED PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS FREDERICK SOUND. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN INTERIOR.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND GULF. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
SATURDAY...MANIFESTING THEMSELVES AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATIONS AND KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT A CHANCE
OR MORE FOR MOST PANHANDLE LOCATIONS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
WEEK AS WELL AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE EXTENT AND
SPEED OF ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE SOUTH IS NOT BEING
DEPICTED AS STRONGLY AS YESTERDAY AND SO...HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF COLDER TEMPS BY A DAY AND MODERATED THEM A BIT AS WELL.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE
IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUCH A LONG RANGE FORECAST ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BEING
EXHIBITED AT THE CURRENT TIME. FCF

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING AKZ019>022-025  ... THOUGH ENDING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ...SNOW ADVISORY AKZ018-023-024-026
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ034-041>043-051-052

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1132 PM AST SUN FEB 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       AUKE BAY                58.39N 134.65W
02/03/2008  M3.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASUREMENT FROM 4PM SAT TO 4 PM SUN

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       JUNEAU                  58.39N 134.13W
02/03/2008  M3.7 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            JUNEAU AIRPORT MEASUREMENT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 330 PM SUN

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       4 N JUNEAU              58.45N 134.13W
02/03/2008  M3.1 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WFO JUNEAU MEASUREMENT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 3 PM SUN

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
02/03/2008  M9.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       40 N HAINES             59.82N 135.44W
02/03/2008  M8.0 INCH        XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       GUSTAVUS                58.41N 135.80W
02/03/2008  M3.9 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP 2.4 OVERNIGHT PLUS 1.5 FROM 6 AM TO 630 PM FOR A
            TOTAL OF 3.9 INCHES.

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
02/03/2008  M12.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP 5.5 OVERNIGHT PLUS 6.5 FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM FOR A TOTAL
            OF 12 INCHES

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       ELFIN COVE              58.19N 136.34W
02/03/2008  M10.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       18 SE JUNEAU            58.20N 133.78W
02/03/2008  M9.9 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP ANNEX CREEK 1.0 OVERNIGHT PLUS 8.9 FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM
            FOR A TOTAL OF 9.9 INCHES

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       PETERSBURG              56.77N 132.86W
02/03/2008  M6.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       9 N PETERSBURG          56.90N 132.86W
02/03/2008  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASUREMENT FROM 6 AM TO 630 PM TODAY

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WRANGELL                56.36N 132.27W
02/03/2008  M4.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       62 S SITKA              56.32N 135.45W
02/03/2008  M2.6 INCH        PKZ042             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP PORT ALEXANDER

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       53 S SITKA              56.45N 135.45W
02/03/2008  M4.0 INCH        PKZ042             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP LITTLE PORT WALTER. MEASUREMENT FROM 5PM SAT TO 5PM
            SUN

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       30 SW WRANGELL          56.05N 132.82W
02/03/2008  M2.7 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP BLASHKE ISLAND. SNOW BEGAN TODAY AROUND 10 AM.

1103 PM     HEAVY SNOW       TENAKEE SPRINGS         57.78N 135.22W
02/03/2008  M5.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            MEASUREMENT FROM 10 SAT TO 2 PM SUN

&&

KAV