Gale Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE EVOLVING STORM IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT.  A LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE KENAI PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 982 MB JUST
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  A COLD INTERIOR PUSH
TONIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
PRIMARILY FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  A HEAVY SNOW
WARNING IS EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY.  A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT THE GREATEST DYNAMICS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. FURTHER
SOUTH...BARANOF ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.  WILL LIKELY UPGRADE
19-20-21-22 TO WARNINGS AND THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA TO AT
LEAST AN ADVISORY IF NOT ALSO A WARNING.

FOR THE MARINE WATERS...GALES WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CREEP INTO THE COASTAL ZONES
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE TIME FRAME. WILL SPEND MOST OF THE TIME ON FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THAT IS WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CHANGES WILL HAPPEN. THERE REMAINS TO BE FAIRLY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WITH JUST SOME MINOR
DETAIL ISSUES.

THE 985 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE
OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND WITH COLD TEMPS. THESE COLD TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK ALONG WITH GOOD FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW OVER MOST
STATIONS. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR PAPG AND PAOH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER POW. THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE SNOW
TAPPER OFF OVER NIGHT AS THE VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THEN BECOME ALL SNOW AS THERE WILL STRONG CCA
AT ALL LEVELS...AMOUNTS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHEN THEY CHANGE
ALL THE WAY OVER TO SNOW.

A UPPER HIGH OVER THE BERING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SAT
AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1045MB HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND DRIFT
INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL SEND VERY COLD AIR
OVER THE PANHANDLE ALONG WITH DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTH. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE IN THE ADVY LEVEL WITH A POSSIBLE OF TAKU WINDS
DEVELOPING NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU SAT NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
TEENS DURING THE DAY AND SUB-ZERO AT NIGHT...COLDEST IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
GALES OVER MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER GUSTS(TO 70KT) NEAR INTERIOR
PASS AND OVER THE INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF ALONG WITH AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MON INTO TUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SE. THE TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
MID WEEK AS A UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW GULF BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TUE. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL RAISE TEMPS SOME BUT THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLE SO TEMPS WILL BE
STILL BELOW NORMAL.

AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARN...ZONE 17
         WINTER STORM WATCH...ZONES 19-20-21-22-24-25-26
         WIND ADVSRY...ZONE 18 THRU 3 PM

MARINE...GALE...12-13
         SMCR...11-21-31-32-33-41-42-43-51-52