Gale Warning 445, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1223 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...
MAP ANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CANADA
PERSISTING WITH HIGHEST PRESSURES NEAR THE YUKON AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA BORDER. A 997 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR HAS A
WEATHER FRONT STRETCHED OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TO A TRIPLE
POINT APPROXIMATELY 50N/145W. THE TRIPLE POINT IS CONTINUING TO
MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO SHEER OUT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAKER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A ANOTHER STRONG LOW NEAR SOUTHERN
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST AS EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE
ALOFT SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS TO A CUTOFF HIGH BUBBLE
OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW OF THE TRIPLE
POINT STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHERN QUEEN CHARLOTTE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
NORTH TO ABOUT DIXON ENTRANCE. STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BUT MAY NOT PUT
MORE THAN FLURRIES IN THAT AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
THE OCCLUDED FRONT APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AT BEST FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS A STRATUS DECK OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE YAKUTAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT...THIS MAY RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW INTO THE YAKUTAT
AREA TONIGHT.

MAIN NCEP MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING DID NOT SEEM TO INITIALIZE WELL
OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND WESTERN CANADA. PREFERRED THE WAY
THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL DID IT AS IT HAD A STRONGER HIGH OVER
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SO USED THIS A MAIN INFLUENCE TO
FORECAST TWEAKS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.

WIND AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES THIS MORNING ENDING AROUND NOON AS
THE WINDS SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDDAY. MAY SEE GUSTS INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA AGAIN...WHICH MAY INCLUDE THE NEED
FOR ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY. GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL AREA OF
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND MAY ALSO REACH 40 MPH SATURDAY WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOULD SEE GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MORNING MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN HINT OF SUBTLE PATTERN
CHANGES STARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. RESULT OVER THE PANHANDLE
WILL BE GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS AND WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKING
CLOSER APPROACHES TO SE AK.

GLOBAL MODELS TODAY SHOW THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF THAT
HAS BEEN BLOCKING STORMS AND STEERING UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO
SE AK WILL RETROGRADE WEST AND BE OVER ERN BERING SEA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD CHANGE THE FLOW ALOFT FROM N-NE TO MORE NW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW OVER THE NRN GULF... EVEN BRIEFLY... WILL
MODERATE TEMPS A BIT. ALSO SFC TEMPS TO OUR NW OVER SRN AND WRN AK
ARE AT OR ABV FREEZING COMAPRED TO THE -47 THIS MORNING AT FORT
GOOD HOPE IN FAR SE CORNER OF NW TERRITORY. NW FLOW ALF ALSO TENDS
TO PRODUCE A SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE COASTAL MTNS UPSTREAM. IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN... SFC WINDS MAY
STEER LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NRN GULF INTO THE NE GULF COAST. THE
BOTTOM LINE FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE WOULD BE MORE CLOUDS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...AND TEMPS MODERATING FROM SINGLE
DIGITS TO CLOSER TO FREEZING. VERY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
ABOUT TUE OR LATER... THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN UPR LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE GULF AND IMPACTING MAINLY SRN PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE DAYS AHEAD FOR
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE PANHANDLE.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION TO CLOUDIER AND NOT AS
FRIGID WEATHER IS MODERATE...MAINLY WITH REGARDS TO TIMING.
THE END OF PANHANDLE COLD SPELLS AMOST ALWAYS INCLUDE MODERATE
SNOWFALLS. HOWEVER THE COLD AIR OVER THE NW INTERIOR IS SO
ENTRENCHED THAT HIGH PRESSURE MAY LINGER CLOSER THAN THE BERING
AND CONTINUE TO BLOCK STORMS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032>036-042-043-051-052.
	 GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041-310
&&

BMB/TA