Gale Warning 442, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
128 PM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

.SHORT TERM...A 1047 MB HIGH CONTINUES TO BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE
YUKON TODAY. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE BRINGING DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER. THE EXCEPTION TO THE
CLEAR SKIES IS IN YAKUTAT WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ALL MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ROTATING INTO YAKUTAT AROUND A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST RANGES HAS DIMINISHED
IN THE NORTH DROPPING THE OUTFLOW WINDS EAST OF YAKUTAT AND IN
SKAGWAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

UPPER AIR...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A 100 KT JET PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN CAUSE COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS SLIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOW 20S.
MEANWHILE THE HIGH IN CANADA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
LOWERING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST RANGES BUT
RAISING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. INCREASED OUTFLOW WINDS FROM INTERIOR PASSES
AND CHANNELS WILL RESULT WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING ADVISORY
GUSTS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

NAM WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. DID SOME MINOR TOUCH UPS TO
THE GRIDS USING A 2 TO 1 BLEND OF THE INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE
NAM.

 &&

.LONG TERM...MODELS AGREEING A LITTLE BETTER AS THE GFS STARTED TO
COME AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH MOST OF THE MID RANGE
FORECAST PACKAGE. I DID A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARDS THE ECMWF RUN
AND LEFT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS ALONE IN THE FORECAST. GFS IS
SIMILAR TO AN EXTENT BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

MID RANGE FORECAST YIELDS TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE
COLD DRY WEATHER CONTINUING TO THE WEEKEND. INCOMING SYSTEM
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD POSE SOME FORECASTING ISSUE ON WHETHER THE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP THE LOW
OFFSHORE AND FRONT RIGHT NOW APPEARING TO BE PULLED SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE AREA ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE MAY
CATCH SOME PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ026-029.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ025.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032-035-036-041-042.

&&

EAL RWT /BEZENEK