Gale Warning 424, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
110 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE NORTHERN AK
PANHANDLE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ALLOW TO EXPIRE OR HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT
FOR ZONES 18 AND 19. SNOW HAS CHANGED OVER TO RAIN OR RAIN AND
SNOW MIX EXCEPT FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY ZONES. WAA WITH MODERATE
SW FLOW AROUND THE 967MB PARENT LOW LOCATED OVER THE KENAI PEN
WILL CONTINUE CONTINUE TO ERODE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTRENCHED IN
THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT
THAT THESE ZONES WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP
SW FLOW WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

 BLENDED 50 PERCENT 12Z GFS AND 25 PERCENT 12Z NAM WITH INHERITED
GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. BOTH GFS AND NAM
INITIALIZED WELL. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. 12Z
NAM IS HANDLING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS EROSION WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. FOR WED THURS SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF A LOW PRESSURE FEATURE. EC AND UKMET KEEP THIS AS AN
OPEN TROUGH WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN A FAST MOVING CLOSED LOW.
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AND BLENDED 12Z GFS AND NAM
WITH INHERITED GRIDS OUT TO DAY 4 AND THEN A BLEND OF GFS WITH
INHERITED GRIDS OUT TO DAY 7. AS THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE N
PANHANDLE FROM THE AK GULF EXPECTING SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES
WITH POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW NEAR HAINES. AS IT
APPEARS TO BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER AND
COLD AIR MAY BE SCOURED OUT QUICKLY.

AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS AND ADVECTS EAST EXPECTING A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OVER MOST
OF THE REGION PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS THIS RIDGE THE
WEEKEND IS STARTING TO SHAPE UP NICELY WITH LOWER POPS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE IS AVERAGE WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE WED-THURS LOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
          AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON
          FOR AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM AKST
          WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
          PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

CCC/PRB