Gale Warning 403, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1253 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...MAP ANALYSIS:A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH IS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BAND OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND COAST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
ANOTHER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE BEARING STRAITS. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE YUKON
TERRITORIES.

 FORECAST REASONING: PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS SNOW FORECAST/AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. INITIAL
TROUGH THIS MORNING LEFT ANY FROM TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW...WHILE THE MAIN FRONTAL FEATURE JUST REACHING THE OUTER
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE OUTER COAST TO SOUTH OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. MAIN SNOW BAND
WILL LIKELY RUN ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES.

 HAVE BUMPED SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE PELICAN/ELFIN COVE AREA TO
WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... AND ADDED THE JUNEAU ZONE IN THE
ADVISORY CLUSTER. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES
FOR THE INNER CHANNEL AREAS WHILE A BROADER RANGE ON THE OUTER
COAST ZONES FROM 4 TO AN UPPER LEVEL OF PERHAPS LOCALLY 8 TO
10 INCHES.

 NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT REESTABLISHING AGAIN THROUGH LYNN
CANAL AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN TO
WEDNESDAY. COULD GET CLOSE TO 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THINK GUSTS
TO 35 MPH TOMORROW WILL BE GOOD...MARINE ZONE FOR THE LYNN CANAL
SHOULD BE TOP SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG WAVE PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE LONG TERM IS BEING
HANDLED PRETTY WELL BY SOME MODELS. FELT THAT THE GFS HANDLED THE
NEXT SHORT WAVES A BIT BETTER AND AFTER CONFERRING WITH ANCHORAGE
THEY WERE LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS AS THE EC WAS NOT AS CONSISTENT.
BLENDED THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NAM FOR BETTER CONSTANCY
WITH THE SHORT TERM, THEN A BLEND OF THE GFS FOR MID TERM AND THEN
HPC FOR THE END.

990 MB LOW TRAVELING DOWN THE PANHANDLE COAST WEAKENS OVER THE S
OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE YUKON WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE N INSIDE CHANNELS.
THE NEXT STRONG LOW TRACKS S OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE W GULF BY
THURS AND CONTINUES ITS TRACK INTO THE E GULF AND PANHANDLE BY
SAT. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WERE INCREASED. THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE LOW WARM SECTOR ARE
LOOKING AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE GFS TRACKED THIS LOW MORE
TO THE SOUTH AND WITH THE EC KEEPING TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER.
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUES.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK
DIFFERING AGAIN ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE UNTIL DAY 4 WITH SOME QUESTIONS ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION.
CONFIDENCE IS THEN LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
        AKZ026>028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
        AKZ023-024.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
        AKZ021-025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ022.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-021-022-033>036-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031-032-041-042-052.

&&

BEZENEK/PRB