Gale Warning 39, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 171210
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A
1005 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST GULF TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. W SWELL. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
W SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE
MORNING. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1215 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...MOISTURE IN THE TRAILING FRONTAL BAND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEGINNING TO THIN A BIT AS A
RIDGE AXIS SWINGS AROUND THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY HEAVY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING DUE
TO POOR DRAINAGE OF SNOW BLOCKED DRAINAGES.

BEHIND THE RIDGE THOUGH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING MOVES NORTHWARD
TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND THEN TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  A WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
PANHANDLE AREA ON THURSDAY... BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER BURST OF
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS THE SOURCE REGION IS THE SUB
TROPICS.

WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUING A GALE WIND FORECAST FOR PKZ052 DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWINGS UP TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 35 KT. OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OR LESS FOR THE MARINE ZONES.

.LONG RANGE...
CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK GOOD AND WELL COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORS
SO LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO LONG RANGE FORECAST. TREND IS
TOWARD DRIER WEATHER OVER TIME.

SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
ALEUTIANS AT 42N WILL RIDE UP WEST SIDE OF RIDGE AND MAKE FOR
ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI. GOOD JET DYNAMICS AND
TAIL END OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM. GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON EXACT PATH OF LOW INTO SE AK... GFS CLOSER
TO YAKUTAT WHILE ECMWF... AND UKMET... CURVE IT CLOSER TO SITKA.
THIS DIFFERENCE MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON PRECIP TYPE MENTIONED IN
NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRI BUT IN GENERAL THIS SHOULD BE A ANOTHER
WET SYSTEM... SNOW LEVEL MAY BE AT OR ABOVE 6K FT OVER S COAST
FRI.

ONCE IT PASSES BY LATE FRI THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS RATHER
QUICKLY ACCORDING TO GFS AND ECMWF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER NRN
PANHANDLE BECOME NORTHERLY AND A COOLER OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG EPISODE OVER THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN WILL OFFER NEEDED
RELIEF FROM RECENT WET PRECIP AND SNOW MELT.

LARGER SCALE EVOLUTION SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRESSES
WEST ACROSS GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM TRIES TO STAY
TOGETHER IN SPLIT FLOW AROUND WED.  TA

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVSRY ZONE 19 CANCELED
         WIND ADVSRY ZONE 18
         SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR FLOODING DUE POOR DRAINAGE
MARINE...SMCR NEARLY ALL ZONES