Gale Warning 384, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
104 PM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...A LOW OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW SE OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO THE N-CENTRAL GULF
THIS EVENING...THEN REFORM IN THE SW YUKON LATE TONIGHT. WEAK
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN SE AK THIS EVENING THEN STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT NWD WED. A
STRONGER LOW COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO THE S-CENTRAL GULF WED.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND. STRONG SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
KEEP AN ENHANCED LEE-SIDE TROF OVER THE SRN YUKON THROUGH WED
MORNING...AND THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE PAGY AREA AT ADVY
LEVELS THROUGH THEN. THERE MAY BE BRIEF LULLS IN THE WIND THERE
DURING THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT ADVY LEVELS
IN PAGY  THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL COASTAL
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ADVY LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO THE N-CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING AND THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
IN. ENDED UP KEEPING THE WIND ADVYS FOR PASI AND PAEL ZONES...BUT
DROPPED THE ADVY FOR PAYA AS THE ADVY LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
SE OF THERE. THEN AS LOW COMPLEX MOVES IN WED...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE WIND ADVYS NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SRN COASTAL AREAS LATE
WED. WILL NOT ISSUE THOSE ATTM TO PREVENT CONFUSION WITH CURRENT
ADVYS GOING ON IN PART OF THAT AREA. MARINE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SCA LEVELS MOST AREAS...THEN GALE FORCE
WINDS SHOULD MOVE IN WED FOR THE GULF AND PARTS OF THE INNER
CHANNELS.

 PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY UNTIL THE FRONT AND LOW MOVE IN EARLY
THIS EVENING...WHEN A MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP BAND SHOULD MOVE IN.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AREA AS
STRONG SW FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL UPSLOPE THERE AND
WHERE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION AND PVA WILL BE. THE PRECIP
FURTHER S WILL DIMINISH WED AS FLOW BACKS AROUND TO SE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW AND STALLED FRONT DRIFTS NWD.

.LONG TERM...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOCUSES ON
A 985 LOW THAT IS CENTERED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING
OF THE LOW WITH THE EC BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND STRONGER THEN THE
GFS. THE PRECIP FROM THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL AFFECT THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL START AFFECTING OUR WEATHER AS AN
OCCULT ION FROM A 965 LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENN ROTATES
INTO THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED THE EC WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT AGREES EARLY ON WITH OTHER MODELS ON TAKING THE LOW CENTER
ON A MORE SOUTHERLY COURSE AND BRINGING IT UP JUST EAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS STILL WANTS A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK AND BRINGS THE LOW UP JUST WEST OF KODIAK. REGARDLESS THE
SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT THE PANHANDLE WILL STILL SEE
MODERATE POPS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW THAT
THIS SYSTEM GENERATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS POOR AFTER THE KODIAK LOW, AND THE ONLY
THING THAT CAN BE SAID IS THAT WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER LOW FORMS WELL
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AKZ023.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034>036.

RWT/EAL