Gale Warning 381, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1247 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...A 970 MB LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
SLOWLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED WELL DEVELOPED OCCLUDED FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF
THE LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

 GALE FORCE WINDS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SE SMCR IN COASTAL ZONES INCREASING TO GALES
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS SPREAD INTO THE OCEAN
ENTRANCES BUT DIMINISH TO SMCR THROUGH MOST OF INNER CHANNELS.
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS IN ZONE 17 STAYING MAINLY WEST OF ICY BAY WITH PAYA
WINDS CONSIDERABLY LESS.

 BIORKA ISLAND RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS MORNING HOWEVER LEADING EDGE OF STRATIFORM PRECIP
STARTING TO MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD TO THE
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FAIRLY WARM AND
EXPECT RAIN TO BE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1-3 INCHES
FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREAS. PAYA MAY ALSO GO TO UNMIXED SNOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH NE GRADIENT BUT WILL GO BACK TO ALL RAIN
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE.

 MAY SEE BRIEF BREAK IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT LATE TONIGHT BUT
SECONDARY FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE TO COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH INNER CHANNELS WITH
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND FAVORABLE GRADIENT
ORIENTATION.

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS TODAY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DECIDED TO NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES THE GRIDS. FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO 0Z ON
SATURDAY I BLENDED THE INHERITED GRIDS WITH 50/50 BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, JUST LEFT IT AS IS.

THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND DISSIPATES SOUTH AND WEST OF YAKUTAT BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EC PUSHES THE LOW THROUGH A
LITTLE FASTER AND WEAKER THEN THE GFS, BUT STILL KEEPS THE SAME
TRACK. THE BLEND WE USED PRODUCE A GOOD COMPROMISE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL A MATTER OF DISPUTE BETWEEN THE EC AND
THE GFS. THE EC HAS A 950 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND BRINGS IT UP TO EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE GFS ALSO HAS
A 950 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE LOW
TRACK IS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST BRINGING THE LOW WEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND AND IS SLOWER THEN THE EC. EITHER WAY THE WEATHER HERE WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THE VARIOUS WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW
CENTER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022-023.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036.

MM/EAL