Gale Warning 376, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW JUST
SOUTH OF PWS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT WILL LIFT
NNE TONIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO THE UPPER 980S AS IT MOVES WEST OF
DIXON ENTRANCE. THERE IS SNOW FALLING NEAR PAYA THIS MORNING WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...THEY MAY MIX WITH SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH A EAST WIND THINK THEY WILL REMAIN MOST FROZEN. THERE IS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE ATTM THAT IS BUILDING
IN STRENGTH AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS HAS PRODUCED
WIND ADVY WIND NEAR PAGY. THESE WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION CHANGES BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE IS SEEING LIGHT RAIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION TO AREAS NEAR INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WITH BETTER ACCESS TO
COLDER AIR SNOW IS FALLING. THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS IS NOT SEE
MUCH PRECIP ATTM BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES FURTHER EAST THEY
WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

 THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND INCREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP PRECIP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL THIS
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AS THEY WILL REMAIN THE DRIEST WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
SOME SNOW AND RAIN.

 THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH SUN AND
WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO WIND ADVY OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE
ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HDYER AREA WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT THE
SOUTHWEST COAST WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE MARINE AREAS
WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALES OVER SE GULF AND CLARENCE
STRAIT. THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20KT
FROM THE NORTH AND PLACES WILL SEE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK. PRECIP
WISE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WWA WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP RATES TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. THERE WILL COLDER TEMPS NEAR HYDER WITH AN OUTFLOW NE WIND
SO THEY WILL SEE SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES THROUGH THE
LATE SUN AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE PRECIP BUT
AMOUNTS WILL VARY AS A DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE SYSTEM MOVING
OVER THE THIS MORNING WILL GET HUNG UP OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR FREEZING BUT ATTM WITH THE WAA AND NOT MUCH COLD AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER IT WILL BE MAINLY LIQUID BUT THE HAINES
AREA/HIGHWAY MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS. SO WITH THAT SAID
WILL PUT IN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON IN THE
HAINES AREA.

.LONG TERM...STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF
FOR SUN NIGHT AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON LOW TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA. WENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR MON INTO TUE NIGHT...THEN WENT
WITH THE NEW HPC GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WAS
BEST MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION FOR SYSTEMS FOR MON ONWARD.
OVERALL...PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH MEAN TROF AXIS WELL W OF THE
AREA AND RIDGE JUST E OF AREA...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
WELL W OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR SUN NIGHT...AS LOW CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...LOOKS
LIKE ADVY LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE
SRN AREA. OVER THE N...PTYPE WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY NW OF A
PAJN-PAOH AXIS. ATTM...AM LEANING TOWARD GOING WITH MAINLY RAIN IN
THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE FAR N SHOULD SEE A MIX OR SNOW. IF PRECIP
IS HEAVIER AND WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT IN THE LOWER 2K FT
HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF WET SNOW WOULD OCCUR ALONG THE PAJN-PAOH CORRIDOR.
ANY SNOW IN THE HYDER AREA SHOULD TURN TO RAIN AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE SSW THERE DURING THE EVENING...BUT THEY COULD GET A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW THERE BEFORE CHANGING OVER.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATE MON. THIS WILL
BRING MORE PRECIP TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SE FLOW IN LOWER
LEVELS EVEN IN THE FAR N...PTYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SYSTEMS WILL BE COMING IN FAIRLY
QUICKLY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING TO THE E OF THE
AREA SO THE MAIN LOW TRACK SHOULD SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE W. THIS
SHOULD DIMINISH THE PRECIP THREAT OVERALL TO THE FAR SERN AREA
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AKST SUNDAY
     FOR AKZ019.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ028-029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>034.

ABJ/RWT