Gale Warning 340, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 101951 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1100 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-110100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM FORCE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-110100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1100 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2008 

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-110100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1100 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-110100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1100 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2008 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING
TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT SHIFTING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-110100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2008 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING
TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT SHIFTING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-110100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1100 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2008

UPDATED 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...E GALE TO 45 KT SHIFTING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
132 PM AKST SUN NOV 9 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE ENTIRE FCST DOMAIN IS GOING FM CLEAR TO
OVF IN ABT 12 HOURS TODAY, AND THIS CHG WILL BE COMPLETED
THIS EVENING.  THE DRY BOUNDARY LALYER WE HAVE WILL DELAY
THE ONSET OF PCPN AND THE OCFNT TO REACH THE PNHDL MON
WILL INCREASE WINDS BUT SHOULD NOT PROVDE PCPN EXCEPT
FOR THE YAKUTAT ZONE WITH ABT 2 INCHES OF SNOW.  THE
LATER FRONTAL BANDS WILL GEN PCPN FOR THE PNHDL.

500H PARENT LOW OVR COLD BAY IS QSTNRY AND IS THE PARENT
FEATURE FOR MUCH OF WHAT FOLLOWS IN THIS SXN.  AN OCCLUSION
EXTENDS ESE FM OVER KODIAK TO TRIPLE PT ABT 300 NM SSW OF
KETCHIKAN.  THIS OCFNT WILL WEAKEN AS THE FIRST OF A FAMILY
OF POLAR FRONT ZONES WAVES TRACK NE INTO THE GLFALSK.

OUR DRY PERIOD HAS BEEN ASSOCD WITH WHAT IS NOW A RIDGE ALF
OVR THE COAST MTN RANGE.  THIS RIDGE ALF IS NOW MVG E OUT
OF OUR FCST AREA.  SUBISIDENCE INVERSIONS ARE PROMINANT ON
BOTH THE PAYA AND PANT 12Z RAOBS.  THE PANT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MORE PRONOUNCED:  THE TOP OF THE INVERSION IS
AT 850 MB AND HAS A 70 F DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION IS AT ABT 890 MB WITH A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
LESS THAN 13F.

THE PAYA RAOB SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRRUS THAT
IS SPREADING E AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FCST DOMAIN AS AN
OVERCAST BY THIS EVENING.  MUCH LESS RADIATIVE COOLING THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE OVERCAST, AND IN ADDITION THE CIG
WILL BE LOWERING FM UPPER LEVELS TO ROUGHLY 10 KFT
ABT 18Z MON. THE YAKUTAT ZONE WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH
SNOW AND LOWER CIGS IN PLACE ABOUT 18Z MON DUE TO THE OCFNT
DISCUSSED ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF MON NIGHT AND LIFT N
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUE. THE FRONT WILL BRING GALES AHEAD OF IT
TO THE OUTER WATERS AND INTO THE COASTAL CHANNELS THROUGH TUE.
INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE MAX SMALL CRAFT TUE BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES AS IT MOVES INLAND TUE AND INTO SW YUKON BY TUE NIGHT.

MODELS AT THE SFC HAVE A DECENT IDEA THROUGH TUE BUT THEN GO
THEIR SEPARATE WAYS WHILE UPPER LEVEL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
PAFC...USED 12Z GFS TO TOUCH UP GRIDS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE TUE.
THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS ON HOW STRONG WILL WINDS BE. STILL
BELIEVE WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES BEGINNING SOMETIME MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY SE
WINDS. AS FOR THE OUTER WATER GALES...BELIEVE THEY WILL STAY
BELOW STORM FORCE BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT JUST YET.
LOOKING AT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR PAYA AND AREAS N OF A PAGS
TO PAJN LINE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE
DAY TUE CHANGING PRECIP TO ALL LIQUID AT THE SFC BY THE
AFTERNOON. A LOW WILL UNDERCUT THE PANHANDLE WED AND MOVE INTO
BC. A HIGH WILL THEN BUILD OVER BC THU AND SPREAD OVER SE AK THAT
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE AREA BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF FRI AFTERNOON.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-041-042.

JBT/MAM