Gale Warning 302, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2008

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A 988 GALE FORCE
LOW APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SW OF THE CHARLOTTES. THE LOW WILL WORK
ITS WAY NW TODAY PARALLELING THE COAST. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PACKAGE WAS PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP COOLER AIR
AROUND NORTH OF A PAGS TO PAJN LINE. WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE S ALOFT...EXPECTING TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW NORTH
OF THE LINE THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THIS AFTERNOON. PAGY AND PAHN KEEP A MIX HOWEVER AS THE
NORTHERLIES WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH ANY WIND
ADVISORIES TODAY BUT DO HAVE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR ALL INNER CHANNELS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHERE THE STRONG GRADIENT
WILL KEEP GALES THERE UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. GALES AS WELL FOR
PKZ041 AND 042 WITH SMALL CRAFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NW AND FILLS.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. FOR PRESSURE...BLENDED THE 00Z GFS AND NAM RUNS WITH
INHERITED GRIDS. FOR THE REST...USED NAM TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. UNDER NEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH...A SERIES OF LOWS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE THE NORMAL
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN A MAXIMUM
CONSISTENCY...USED THE GFS SOLUTIONS.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR YAKUTAT WILL DISSIPATE
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW ENTERS THE SOUTH EASTERN
GULF. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND APPROACH NEAR YAKUTAT BY MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
CLARENCE STRAIT WILL EVEN EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY. ROUGH
SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS DUE TO SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES AS
WELL. BASED ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...EXPECT POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER
SOUTHWEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE LOW WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME
A RESIDUAL LOW OVER SOUTHERN YUKON. A BIT COLDER AIR APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE BEHIND THE WEAKENING LOW AND MODIFY THE PANHANDLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NORMAL.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT MORE OFFSHORE. THUS
EXPECT LOWER POPS THROUGH MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER LOW
ENTERS THE SOUTH EASTERN GULF AND MOVES TO NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE.
THIS LOW WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN TWO THIRD OF
THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-043-051-052.

&&

MAM/CFD/SJA