Gale Warning 274, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1252 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 976 MB STORM
FORCE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR PAYA WITH A STRONG SECOND
WRAP EXTENDING SE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING
VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
WIND ADVY OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR PAGY AREA. ALSO ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
ABOVE 2000 FEET FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH UP TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE TURNING TO RAIN. OVER
MARINE WATERS THERE IS GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE SE OVER THE
INSIDE WATER BUT FROM THE SW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE SECOND
WRAP IS GENERATING NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS ATTM OVER THE NE GULF
AND CAPE SPENCER.

EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE N GULF TO MOVE INLAND N OF YAKUTAT BAY
AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE YUKON. AS THE LOW MOVES OVERLAND
EXPECTING THE NORTH/SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE NEXT STORM FORCE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
NE GULF WED EVENING. THIS LOW CURRENTLY AT 957 MB IS THE REMNANTS
OF A TYPHOON THAT ORIGINATED NEAR JAPAN WILL HAVE A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG WITH GREATER THERMAL CONTRASTS TO INCREASE
WINDS. THE GFS HAD BETTER INITIALIZATION WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND
HAS IT TRACKING ACROSS THE N GULF TO PRICE WILLIAM SOUND. AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES OVER THE GULF EXPECTING STORM FORCE WINDS
OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM THE 850 MB JET
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN OVER PAYA
AND MOVE W TO E AS THE FRONT MAKES LANDFALL WITH THE COASTAL ZONES
GETTING TO ADVISORY LEVELS THURS MORNING. INSIDE WATERS WILL SEE
SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS MOVING N TO S AS THE FRONT PASSES.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE RISING OVER THE N ZONES WITH SNOW CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL WITH THE WINDS AT THE
BORDER OF THE ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST TWO MORE GALE TO
STORM FORCE LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE FIRST OF THE LOWS WILL
BRING WIND ADVY GUSTS TO THE PANHANDLE BETWEEN SHORT AND LONG TERM
HAND OFF TIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND
GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF LATE SATURDAY AND PUSHES A
FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WIND ADVY GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL BAND ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITHIN COASTAL LOCATIONS SO THIS SYSTEM BEARS
WATCHING. USED THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF IN TODAYS PACKAGE AS IT HAS A
LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WAS PREFERRED
BY HPC AND THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION.

A SECOND FORECAST PROBLEM INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
-8 C TO -12 C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BE CONVECTIVE AND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SO COLD
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT GALE FORCE LOW COULD SEE AREAS OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...SO THIS
SITUATION ALSO BEARS WATCHING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FORMS IN THE LYNN CANAL AREA.

AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE YUKON ON MONDAY AND REMAINS THERE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE AN
ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW IN THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE DEALING WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERIODS OF RAIN AS SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE UP A MID
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
STRONGER INTO THE YUKON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE COLDER
AIR COULD MAKE IT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SO THIS ARCTIC HIGH BEARS
WATCHING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS A POINT OF
CONCERN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ024-026-027.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020-021-025.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ022-023.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-022.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.

&&

ABJ/PRB/PSS