Gale Warning 270, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
102 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING LOW
OVER THE NE GULF WITH SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND IT. THERE IS ALSO A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD MOVING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL BE THE
BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE.
STATIONS AROUND THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING ARE REPORTING SOME
SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEAKENING LOW IN THE NE GULF GET
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER STORM.

THE STORM FORCE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 965MB AS IT LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE IT HEADS INLAND OVER PAYA
AND INTO THE YUKON BY WED AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE AK THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO
DROP ABOUT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF SO RAIN
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND INLAND THROUGH
WED THERE WILL BE A STRONG WESTERLY SECOND WRAP THAT WILL MOVE
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS SO THE WIND WARNING FOR ZONES 23 AND 27
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT OVER THE GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
NIGHT TO BE 20 TO 25FT BY WED MORNING. THESE HIGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO SEE
STORM FORCE WINDS AS A 70-80KT LLJ WILL BE RIGHT OVER THEM AND
THE FRONT WILL MIX DOWN THOSE STRONG WINDS. THE REST OF THE
SOUTHERN MARINE WATERS WILL SEE GALES FROM THE SE/E THROUGH WED.

THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING FROM THE EAST. WIND ADVY GUSTS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND LOW LIFTS NORTH. THINK THE WINDS WILL
BE THE STRONGEST ON WED ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO CANADA AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES VERY TIGHT FROM THE SE. MOST NORTHERN
STATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIND ADVY THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
WILL PUT IN A MAX WIND ADVY FOR PAGY AS THE WINDS WILL BE RACING
DOWN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE TIGHT PRESS GRADIENT AND THEY MAY
NEED A WIND WARNING BY LATE WED AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER MARINE WATERS WILL RELAX THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT. E/W
CHANNELS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NIGHT BUT AS THE LOW
LIFTS INLAND THE N/S CHANNEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS ALONG WITH RISING FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 6000FT. THIS WILL
CAUSE RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS TO RISE RAPIDLY. WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
RIVERS/SMALL STREAMS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL BUT ATTM DO NOT EXPECT
IT.

.LONG TERM...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A
150 KT SW JET THROUGH THE END OF WEEK. A STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WED NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT 150 NM S OF
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WED NIGHT AND THU BRINGING STORM
FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER WATERS. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIND
ADVISORIES BACK TO THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE THU WITH HIGH
WIND WARNINGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
ZONES.

MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUN WHEN THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE SUN NIGHT.
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BRINGING COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI BEFORE DIVERGING DUE TO
TIMING DIFFERENCES. FELT THAT 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET HAD BEST
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING A TAD FAST AND A
LITTLE BIT FURTHER EAST. THAT BEING SAID...BLENDED 00Z ECMWF AND
12Z UKMET WITH INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH 12Z FRI. DID MAKE A COUPLE
OF MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPS BUT OTHER THAN THAT NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM AKDT
WEDNESDAY FOR
     AKZ024-025.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ022.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ023.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ020.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ021.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM AKDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ019.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ018.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-043-051.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-033>035-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-031-032.

&&

ABJ/MAM