Gale Warning 239, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1237 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2008

.SHORT RANGE...1010 MB LOW JUST SW OF PAYA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL
TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FAIRLY
SHARP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON
THURSDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING WARM SECTOR WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BIORKA ISLAND RADAR IS SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING INTO CROSS SOUND-SITKA AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE ARE SCATTERED OPEN CELL SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE RAIN AND POSSIBLE
ICE PELLETS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN PAYA AREA.

WINDS ACROSS THE GULF STARTING TO DIMINISH AND WILL BE BELOW SMCR
LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH INNER CHANNELS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS
BUT WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOME NW OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT BY MORNING AS RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

SHOWERS DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BY
THIS EVENING WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE BEEN QUIT COLD LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW AREAS OF FROST AS WELL. WILL KEEP NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BUT SHOULD GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES IN NW
FLOW.  WAA BEGINNING BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ATMO STABILIZING.
COULD SEE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP REACH PAYA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

USED 12Z GFS40 FOR TODAY THROUGH TOMORROWS GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...
INTERESTING WEEKEND SHAPING UP AS A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL
SPREAD E ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER ON
FRI. WILL ALSO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORN.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER THE SAME TIME
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

A TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS THE BERING AND INTO THE N PAC BY THU
NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK PEN AND
INTO THE E BERING SEA FRI WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE W GULF. A MATURING WAVE WILL MOVE N ALONG THIS FRONT TO
FORM A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR KODIAK BY 12Z FRI. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH THE PANHANDLE EARLY SAT. SW FLOW
SETS UP BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TEMPS TO STAY ON
THE WARMER SIDE AS WELL AS KEEP THE PANHANDLE IN A WET PATTERN.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BLENDED THE
08/00Z ECMWF AND 08/12Z GFS WITH THE OFFICIAL THROUGH SUN. BEYOND
SUN WENT WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF 12Z GFS AND OFFICIAL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR AKZ017 THUR NIGHT-FRI
NONE.
MARINE...SMCR PKZ041-053
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
&&

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