Gale Warning 180, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2008
 .SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND IS HELPING FEED TWO SURFACE
FEATURES MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE PREDOMINANT SURFACE LOW IS
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHILE THE SECONDARY
LOW IS PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS SECONDARY
LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR PERIOD AS A WEATHER
FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. COASTAL REGIONS WILL BE FEELING THE FIRST
IMPACTS AND PAYA IS ALREADY BEING AFFECTED BY THIS WEATHER FRONT
WITH MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING
THIS MORNING IN THE COASTAL ZONES...WITH NEAR-GALE WINDS AT BUOY
46083. THESE WINDS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BARRIER JET WHICH HAS
FORMED AS THE STACKED LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS WHICH SHOULD HELP DRIVE
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S.

12Z GFS-40 WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE WITH A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION HEADED OUR WAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE GETTING MORE
ORGANIZED WITH A 100KT JET DRAPING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF HELPING ENHANCE THE LOW. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE PUSHING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN
THE PANHANDLE WITH MOST AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SEEING
AROUND .25 TO .5 INCHES BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE NORTHERN OUTER
COAST WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TOWARD THE WET SIDE WITH UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES OF RAIN BY MORNING POSSIBLE. MODEL WINDS WERE TRENDING
TOWARD GALES FOR THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING AND SHOULD
BE DIMINISHING BY TOMORROW MORNING. SMALL CRAFTS WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT.

.LONG RANGE...
ALL 24/12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS FOCUS ON A MAJOR UPR LOW NEAR 55N
142W AT 12Z ON SAT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A SFC LOW AROUND 1000 MB
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WIND IN THE GULF. ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM IS
ARCTIC FOR ENERGY AND MOISTURE SOURCE WAS TROPICAL FROM AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM BROUGHT IN YESTERDAY. WHAT WILL HELP TO REDUCE
RAINFALL RATES IS THE CYCLONIC SE FLOW ALF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIKELY THAT UPR LOW CENTER WILL MOVE OVR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY
00Z MON AS PER 24/12Z AK-GFS-40 AND 24/00Z ECMWF. OLD ENSEMBLE
MEANS ALSO HELPS WITH THIS DECISION AND THE 24/12Z ECMWF FINALLY
HERE IT IS PREFERRED. AFTER THAT 24/12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RAPIDLY
DIVERGE AS USUAL. WEIGHED GRID FORECASTS HEAVILY TO HPC & ECMWF
GRIDS NEXT MONDAY THRU WED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033>036-041.

KB/JC