Gale Warning 162, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1252 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SE AK UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT THERE ARE
SOME BREAKS OF SUN. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE STRONG WEATHER FRONT. THE
WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGER WITH A THERMAL TROF OVER SW
YUKON. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING SO THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SWITCH TO THE NORTH WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT.

A VERY STRONG LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
ASSOCIATED WITH A 180KT JET WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF
BY WED AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY STRONG WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW THAT WILL LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AREAS BY THE LATE MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND WILL KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN GOING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A VERY LONG SW FETCH THAT WILL TRANSPORT A LOT OF
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WITH A 150KT JET MOVING OVER THE
AREA RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN AMOUNT WILL BE FROM 1-2
INCHES WITH UP TO 4 INCHES NEAR FAVORABLE TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE
RAIN THE FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE CONSIDERABLE AND WILL BEGIN TO
MELT THE ABOVE NORMAL SNOW PACK IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES BUT IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SNOW
PACK TO RIPEN SO THERE WILL BE A LAG IN THE RISES.

WINDS FOR WED...THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO GALES OVER
THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS EAST THE WINDS WILL
RELAX TO MAX SMALL CRAFT EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AS THEY WILL
REMAIN NEAR 35 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL BUILD 15 TO
18 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. FOR THE INNER CHANNELS THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KT OUT OF THE EAST OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS
AND SOME EAST/WEST CHANNELS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. THE REST OF
THE MARINE AREAS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL BE 25 TO 30 KT. THE
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE THE WIND SWITCH FROM A LIGHT NORTHERLY
TO 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. OVER LAND AREAS THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TO WIND
ADVY LEVELS AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TO THE SOUTHERN INSIDE BUT THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE AREA STATIONS WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE JUNEAU AREA WILL SEE THE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO ADVY LEVELS AS A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM... LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE WITH A MAJOR HIGH LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE DATELINE
AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALG WEST COAST. NEW TWIST IS THE INJECTION OF
VORTICITY AND JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TYPHOON RAMASSUN
DIGGING INTO BASE OF TROUGH. THESE INGREDIENTS FAVOR MAJOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TO AFFECT SE AK EARLY PART OF EXTENDED
PERIOD. FOR SAKE OF FCST CONSISTENCY IN THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER SITUATION I AM MAKING ONLY THE SMALLEST ADJUSTMENTS TO
GRIDS AND TEXT FCSTS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED LAST NIGHT
AND WILL BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WED NIGHT MAIN OCCLUDED FRONTAL PUSH WILL BE EXITING N-NEWD
THROUGH PANHANDLE. GFS MODEL INDICATES PROLONGED POST FRONTAL
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF A VERY MOIST AND MILD AIR MASS. STATISTICAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES HEAVIEST PCPN RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT ALG COAST FROM SITKA S.

THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM STORM WILL BIG IMPACT ON MARINE
FCSTS. SYNOPTIC GALES SHOULD DIMINISH OFFSHORE EARLY THUR AS LOW
CENTER FILLS NEAR COOK INLET. SWELL PACKET IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNE
30 KTS WED NIGHT THROUGH OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE AND INTO ZONES
51-52 PER WAVE MODEL. THIS MVMT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN LOW
CENTER ITSELF /ABOUT 25 KTS/ SO DYNAMIC FETCH SITUATION POSSIBLE
AND PROBABLY LENDING SUPPORT TO MODEL WAVE HEIGHTS OF 30 PLUS FEET
LATE WED. MEANWHILE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 2 MB
PER HR WILL CONTINUE WED NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THU. STRONGEST
RISES OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WIND FOCUS CHANGES TO INNER
CHANNELS WHERE PRESSURE ORIENTATION FAVORS GALES THROUGH MID DAY
ESP SE-NW ORIENTED CHANNELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NWD FRI AND HELPS STABILIZE AIRMASS AND
DIMINISH WINDS FURTHER. SOME COOLING ALFT AND STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST
AIRMASS MAY COMBINE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY S PARTS. GFS AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS SHOW A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM EAST OF HAWAII AIMED AT ZONES
27-28-29 FRI-SAT SO PCPN MAY BE MORE STRATIFORM THERE. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING AND DRYING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO PRODUCE OVER ALL FAIR WEATHER PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER AFTER THE WEEKEND WHEN THERE IS A HINT
ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH FROM WARM
LATITUDES TO INCREASE WINDS AND CHC OF PCPN AGAIN.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ022-023-025-027-028
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032>036-041.

&&

ABJ/TA

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