Gale Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 031237
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-040100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 975 MB LOW STATIONARY 75 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT...WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FRIDAY.  

$$

PKZ011-040100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ012-040100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ013-040100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ021-040100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ022-040100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ031-040100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ032-040100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ033-040100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-040100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ035-040100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ036-040100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AST THU JAN 3 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST WED JAN 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...AT 1900 UTC A 970 MB LOW WAS 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SITKA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 975 MB LOCATED 100 NM S OF YAKUTAT BY LATE
TONIGHT. STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW WEAKENS. NUMEROUS BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK
WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLE
AND SNOW ELSEWHERE. OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS COOLER AIR AROUND THE
BACK OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

A DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN SE AK PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. THIS DEFORMATION AREA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SO EXPECT
SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES IN NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY THURSDAY THE LOW BEGINS TO RE-DEVELOP IN THE YUKON LEAVING A
WEAK RESIDUAL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.LONG RANGE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD THIS MORNING WITH
GFS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER
GLOBALS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY NEXT SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE GULF AND
OVER THE PANHANDLE. FARTHER WEST...THREE VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
BEING PRESENTED WITH THE GFS SOLUTION HAVING THE GREATEST IMPACT
ON THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL
PATTERN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF BUT GFS IS RUNNING A FULL 20
MB DEEPER WITH THE LOW DUE SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DIFFERENCES RESULT FROM ORIGIN OF THIS SURFACE LOW. GFS TRACKS
THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST INTO THE NE GULF WITH STRONG JET SUPPORT
WHEREAS THE ECMWF LOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS
SURFACE FEATURE. BELIEVE THE GFS PICTURE IS MORE ACCURATE AND
WILL USE GFS AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE WITH A BLEND OF NAM IN THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.

THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN ALONG THE COAST NEAR YAKUTAT AND STILL BE PRODUCING SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND SOUTH DOWN THE OUTER
COAST TO ABOUT CAPE DECISION. AM THINKING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED A BIT BY SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER
THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE LOOKING
PRETTY DRY IN TERMS OF RAIN OR SNOW BUT A DECAYING SYSTEM WORKING
ITS WAY UP THE COAST WILL SPREAD MIXED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT THAT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIR ARRIVES FROM THE EASTERN GULF. SNOW SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO
MIXED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY MORNING SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT AS
A TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACKS NE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND PUSHES
AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OUTER COAST. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE WARM AIR AND A SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE EASTERN GULF. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A
RAPID TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ISSUES IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SOUTHEASTERLY GALES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS AND DIXON ENTRANCE
FROM THE SOUTH AND WORK THEIR WAY UP THE COAST BEFORE BECOMING
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS AFTER THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHWEST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW WARN...AKZ19 THUR 12PM THUR
         WIND ADVY...AKZ22 23 27 28
MARINE...GALE...PKZ42>43 36
         SCA...PKZ52 51 11>13 21 22 31>35

CFD/FCF