Gale Warning 121, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT THU MAR 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...MORNING SATELLITE LOOP NICELY SHOWS THE LOW CENTER
DISTANT WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WITH ITS WELL DEFINED
MOISTURE BAND OVER NORTH AND EAST PERIPHERIES...APPROACHING
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PANHANDLE. THE RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION BAND
OVER NORTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE AREA IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWEST
TO NORTH AND DISSIPATING. IN BETWEEN OF THESE TWO MOISTURE
BANDS...SEVERAL STATIONS REPORT PARTIAL CLEARING. THE INCOMING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS ITS LEADING EDGE PASSING
OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AT THIS TIME AND SLIGHTLY TOUCHING
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING GUSTY WINDS
NEAR KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE ISLAND.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS
WITH CYCLONIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE PRESENT LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND THE INCOMING LOW TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...YIELDING A LITTLE ABOVE THE AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. AS THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF DRIFTING NORTH AND
WEAKENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR MORE SNOW FOR HAINES AND
GUSTAVUS ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL ZONES AS WELL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY EXTEND OVER SOUTHERN ZONES BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. AHN

.LONG RANGE...NCEP AND GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
AND STARTING TO HAVE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE STILL IMPORTANT TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE IN REGAURDS
TO THE LOWS DUMBBELLING NORTHWARD SATURDAY-SUNDAY. WILL REFRESH
GRIDS USING 12Z GFS40.

A COLD 500 MB LOW IS EXPECTED SET UP JUST TO THE EAST OF KODIAK
BY THIS WEEKEND AND THEN DUMBBELL A SERIES OF SMALLER LOW CENTERS
AROUND THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MEAN POSITION OF
THIS COMPLEX IS TENDING TO RETROGRADE A BIT TO THE WEST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND EJECT EAST BY NEXT
THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF SMALL BUT POTENT LOWS
LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO SOUTHEAST GULF.
THESE LOWS THEN WEAKEN AS THEY CURVE NW AND MERGE INTO THE PARENT
LOW JUST EAST OF KODIAK. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FIRST 2 LOWS
MOVE THROUGH BUT SHOULD WINDS EASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES WEAK. WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES FRI NIGHT-SAT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
DIFFICULT CALL WITH ABUNDANT COLD AIR ALOFT BUT LESS SO NEAR THE
SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE EARLIER THINKING THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR JUNEAU AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SHOT OF COLD AIR WRAPS INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS MOST AREAS INTO EARLY MONDAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...SNOW ADV FOR AKZ019-020 FM MIDNITE TONITE TO NOON FRI.
      ...WND ADV FM MIDNITE TONITE TO 6 PM FRI FOR CSTL ZNS.

MARINE...GALE WRNG FOR PKZ041>043.
      ...SCA FOR ALL REMAINING MARINE ZONES.

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