Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
204 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...AN ENERGETIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME MAJOR FEATURES BUT DISAGREE ON THE
DETAILS SO TIMING OF HAZARDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE A CHALLENGE.

ALOFT...A TROUGH DIGGING IN ALONG THE CHUKCHI/BERING STRAIT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG THE WEST COAST...STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR BUT WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY
SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A LOW ALONG THE ALETIANS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WHEN IT IS ABSORBED BY LOW THAT IS RAPIDLY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS LOW WILL BLAST INTO THE
MAINLAND JUST WEST OF ANCHORAGE ON TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE ALL THE
WAY TO THE NORTH SLOPE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTH SLOPE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A BLIZZARD MAY FORM ALONG
THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WENDESDAY. ALL THE
MODELS BRING THIS LOW INTO A SMILIAR POSITION INITIALLY...BUT THEY
DIFFER WILDLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW ONCE IT REACHES BARTER
ISLAND...AND THEY DIFFER ON WIND SPEED. SINCE THERE IS SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR NOW.

WEST COAST...AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT BROUGHT NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO NOME ON MONDAY MORNING WILL HANG AROUND THE WEST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONE 213...AND KEEP
IT AS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THIS WEEK UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHED ALONG
WHEN A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE BERING SEA ON FRIDAY.

INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WARM MOIST
AIR FROM THE PACIFIC AND KEEP MOST OF THE COLD AIR OFF TO THE
WEST. CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL KEEP THE USUAL
WINDY SPOTS ACTIVE AND THE TANANA VALLEY WARM AND DRY.

THE WARMER AIR ALOFT COULD CAUSE SOME MIXED PRECIPIATION PROBLEMS
FOR THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA IF CHINOOK
FLOW SHUTS OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND...
BUT MOST OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FAIRBANKS
PRIMARILY ALONG THE YUKON FLATS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE BROOKS RANGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

KS FEB 08