Winter Storm Warning 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
301 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND WILL MAINTAIN ITS TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AND STALL BRIEFLY JUST SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD AND ONSHORE ALONG THE Y-K DELTA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEST COAST...THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS, HEAVY SNOWFALL, HIGH SURF, AND COASTAL FLOODING TO MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR TO AREAS
SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN...LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
FALL NORTH OF KOTZEBUE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW FOR ZONES 207 AND 208...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED
6 INCHES IN THESE ZONES. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN ZONE 207 AND IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH IN ZONE
208...IT APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS
TIME...BUT VISIBILITY WILL NO DOUBT BE REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONE 211 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 6 INCH MARK.

COASTAL HAZARDS...FOR ZONE 213...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR DIOMEDE AND THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...PEAKING AT AROUND 45 MPH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIND, SEAS, AND SURGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHEST AROUND DIOMEDE. STORM SURGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 6 FEET OF SURGE AT DIOMEDE WITH 9 TO 11 FOOT
WAVES...SIMILAR BUT MORE MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT WALES
WITH FORECASTED SURGE AROUND 3 FEET WITH 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS.
EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE DETAILED IN THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.

FOR ZONE 207...THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AT KIVALINA AND POINT HOPE
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE TOO EASTERLY TO IMPACT KIVALINA...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION CAN
CHANGE...THE MODELS HAVE NOT HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM
AND IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO STAY VIGILANT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GREATEST DAMAGE POTENTIAL LIES AT THE SOUTH END OF THE POINT
HOPE AIRPORT AND KIVALINA APPEARS TO HAVE DODGED THIS BULLET.
SHISHMAREF APPEARS TO BE OUT OF THE WOODS AT THIS TIME AS THEIR
LAGOON APPEARS TO BE SOLIDLY ICED OVER.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONE 211 FOR EXPECTED
EROSION ALONG THE NOME-COUNCIL ROAD AT MILE 23...THE CITY OF NOME
AND THE VILLAGE OF GOLOVIN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED.

LOCATIONS IN ZONE 212 APPEAR TO BE OUT OF THE WOODS AT THIS TIME
AS WELL...WITH NORTON BAY ICE COVERED...ELIM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
WOODS...WINDS WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
AFFECT SHAKTOOLIK AND UNALAKLEET AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF CAPE DARBY.

FOR ZONE 210...RIVERS SOUTH OF DEERING ARE ICED OVER AND WILL NOT
AFFECT THE ROAD TO THE AIRPORT DURING THIS STORM.

INTERIOR...A 1010 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE
AROUND AS THEY PLEASE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM THE BERING SEA STORM MOVES INLAND OVER THE
EXISTING COLD AIR. NOTICEABLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN
ON WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL ENJOY A 10 DEGREE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND AND EVEN SOME ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NORTH SLOPE...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ZONE 201 BEGINNING TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WEST OF BARROW THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF BARROW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...THE BERING SEA STORM THAT
IS DEVELOPING TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPACTS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE BERING SEA WATERS STARTING ABOUT THURS NIGHT AND
LASTING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ211.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

KS OCT 08