Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AST MON JAN 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...THE PERSISTENT COLD TROUGH/UPPER LOW PATTERN THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE ALASKA MAINLAND FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS GIVING
WAY TO A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW...AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVE RIDGES
AND TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM TO MAINLY NEAR
NORMAL VALUES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR. AND AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT...THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE.

SURFACE...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AT JAN 14/12Z WERE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE 970-975
MB LOW THAT WAS NEAR 48N/180W AT THAT TIME. THE 6 HR PROG FROM THE
GFS WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE SATELLITE POSITION WHILE THE NAM HAD THE
LOW TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. NO MARINE OBS AVAILABLE NEAR THE LOW
CENTER...BUT GFS SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT SHEMYA...THE NEAREST
METAR...IS VERIFYING WELL. 6 HR CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE GFS IS
PROBABLY NEAR OR A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PROGGED 973 MB CENTER.
BASED ON THE BETTER 6 HOUR POSITION...GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL
ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM... WHICH WILL BE THE MAJOR WEATHER
PRODUCER FOR THE WEST COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. BY JAN
16/00Z... THERE IS SCATTER IN THE MODEL POSITIONS...GFS POSITION
NEAR THE YUKON MODEL APPEARS TO REPRESENT A GOOD MEAN POSITION
FROM THE AVAILABLE RUNS.

SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY ARRIVING IN ZONES
214-215 LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING TO SOUTHERN ZONE 210-ZONES
211-216-ZONE 216 BY LATE TUE MORNING... AND NORTHWARD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF ZONE 210-ZONES 207-208-217 BY TUE EVENING.

WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR...ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE PROGGED ISOBAR ORIENTATION OVER THE KOTZEBUE AREA
AND NEARBY AREAS...WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO MAX OUT AT
HIGHER VALUES THAN PROGGED...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH AREA WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDED ZONES 207-209-210. ZONES 212-213-214 WILL BE
UPGRADED FROM BLIZZARD WATCH TO BLIZZARD WARNING.

THROUGH JAN 16/12Z...GFS 24 HR QPFS RUNNING FROM .25 TO .5 INCH
OVER MUCH OF ZONES 211-212-214-215-216. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NULATO HILLS AREA OF ZONES 215-216.

SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MOST AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE RIDGES
MOVES PAST AND THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY TO WEST BY WED.

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST MAY EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC.

LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ALASKA
RANGE PASSES TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. WIND SUPPORT
ALOFT IS NOT REAL STRONG...AND WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS...MORE LIKELY 20-30 KT...GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
AT THE WINDIEST SPOTS. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WIND
CHILL WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST INTO TONIGHT.

LOW WIND CHILL LIKELY DEVELOPING TUE MORNING IN ZONES 201-202...
SPREADING TO ZONE 203 IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
IS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING EAST WINDS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL BE PUT UP FOR ZONES 201-202-203-205.
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL LIKELY DEVELOPING IN ZONES 204 BY LATE
TUE AFTERNOON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ216.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.
&&

RF JAN 08