Wind Chill Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1051 AM ADT WED MAR 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WILL MIGRATE
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MON. UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER EAST CENTRAL RUSSIA BY WED...MOVING TO NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND
BY SUN. ECMWF/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH SAT. FOR DAYS 4-7...A MEAN TROUGH POSITION IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH RIDGING OR A
BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

SURFACE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
NEXT 5-7 DAYS. A 1045 MB HIGH NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND
WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN BERING BY FRI...WITH RESIDUAL RIDGING
REMAINING OVER THE ARCTIC. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO
REBUILD OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRI.

SNOW AMOUNTS DURING IN THE INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MAINLY FLURRIES. LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL
EXPECTED OVER THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC.

OVER THE INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...AND LITTLE
IF ANY WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

GFS CARRYING TOO MUCH RH BELOW 1 KM OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
INLAND...NAM CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MORE REALISTIC.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING THE COLD-PRODUCED MESOSCALE HIGH/RIDGE OVER
THE INLAND ARCTIC SLOPE...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST EAST OF BARROW. WITH NO
WARMING INLAND EXPECTED SOON WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE INTERIOR
MESO-HIGH...PERSISTENCE WILL CLEARLY BEAT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ213

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ217-AKZ218.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RF MAR 08