Wind Chill Advisory 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
554 AM AST THU MAR 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 300MB ZONAL JET ALONG 30N WILL WORK TO PUSH A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER TO THE WEST. SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN IT FURTHER. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AND WILL REACH THE AK MAINLAND NEAR KODIAK ON FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT LOW. THE
GFS MOVES IT INTO THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA FASTER THAN THE NAM.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MOVES THE LOW CENTER FURTHER INLAND THAN
THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE NAM STALLS THE LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA...SINCE THE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST...THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK
FURTHER EAST THAN THE LAST LOW WHICH STAYED TO THE WEST OF THE
MAINLAND...SO WILL STICK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BUT WITH ONLY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TO THE
WEST COAST AND ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE FRONT WILL GET CAUGHT UP ON THE BROOKS RANGE SO THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR ZONE 218 WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTH SLOPE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE HIGH
ARCTIC TONIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR WITH IT TO THE NORTH
SLOPE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO
WIND CHILLS COULD BE AN ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WERE KEPT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL DUE TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING ENOUGH TO MERIT A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING.

INTERIOR...WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS RIDGING PRECEDES AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND BREAKS
THE DEAD SOUTH DIRECT FLOW THROUGH THE PASSES. THE NEXT LOW COULD
BRING BACK CHINOOK FLOW ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH MORE WARM AIR AND
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE INTERIOR.

WEST COAST...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT TODAY BUT HAVE DROPPED OFF NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND...SO THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE
BERING STRAIT COAST FOR THE MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPROVE VISIBILITY. ON THE OTHER HAND...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY NEAR POINT HOPE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ219.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

KS MAR 08