Wind Chill Advisory 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
556 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE 982 MB OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA AT THIS TIME. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS DIVERGE
FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE NAM KEEPS THE CENTER CONSISTENTLY FARTHER
SOUTH AND MOVES IT FASTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMF AND WE HAVE
GIVEN THIS MODEL LITTLE PLAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMF RUNS WERE
REASONABLY CONSISTENT...THOUGH DIVERGING NOTICEABLY ON SAT
AND SAT NIGHT...BEFORE ARRIVING A SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY.
THE 06Z GFS APPEARS TO CAUGHT A MILD CASE OF THE NAMS BUG.
WE ARE BASICALLY USING 00Z ECMF WITH WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
00Z GFS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE THE SURFACE LOW BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CENTER
ALOFT MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA SUN MORNING (THOUGH
SOME WAVES LIFT OUT OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY). THE CENTER
ALOFT THEN MOVES CYCLONICALLY WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AS A
NEW SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

OUR MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEM HAS BEEN ESTIMATING THE EXTENT TO
WHICH THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL IMPACT
CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS. WE HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSERVATIVE
HERE...FOLLOWING THE ECMF SOLUTION...WHICH SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS THAN EITHER OF THE TWO CURRENT U.S. MODELS. IF THIS
ASSUMPTION IS INCORRECT...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
OVER THE HILLS IN ZONES 219 THROUGH 221 TONIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY.
THE EXTENT OF WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO RATHER UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

DJH FEB 08