Wind Advisory 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK73 PAFG 121351
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
451 AM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

AKZ223-121500-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-080212T1400Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE
451 AM AST TUE FEB 12 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE GSM MODEL FORECAST OF THE COLD STRONG LOW ALOFT
NOW OVER NORTON SOUND MOVING WEST TO BERING STRAIT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. FURTHER...THIS FORECAST IN
CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL PREVIOUS GSM MODEL RUNS. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MODEL HAS SYNCED IN WELL WITH THE CHANGE IN REGIONAL
CIRCULATION PATTERN.

AS THE LOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY WESTWARD...RETURN
FLOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING IN CLOUD COVER AND RISING
TEMPERATURES. THE GSM CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SHORT WAVE ALOFT TO
MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE STRENGTH AND DEFINITION OF THE FORECAST OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SOMEWHAT LESS ON TODAYS RUN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS.

STILL IN THE GSM OUTPUT IS THE FORECAST OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BOUND FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL.
THERE IS A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAYS MODEL FORECAST AND
YESTERDAYS. THIS IS THAT TODAYS MODEL INDICATES A SATURDAY
LANDFALL IN BRISTOL BAY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST OF THE
LOW COMING ASHORE NEAR KUSKOKWIM BAY. THUS...TODAYS GSM RUN
SUGGESTS A WINDY DAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR RATHER THAN
EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL AS INDICATED ON YESTERDAYS RUN.

ONE INTERESTING SMALL SCALE DEVELOPMENT WAS THE STRENGTH OF THE
WIND AT BIG DELTA...WHICH HAD GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITHIN THE PAST 2
HOURS. THE SYNOPTIC MAP DID NOT SHOW A COMPELLING PATTERN FOR THIS
MUCH STRENGTH...BUT THE SURFACE DATA SHOWED A PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN BIG DELTA AND NORTHWAY OF AS MUCH AS 11 MILLIBARS...WHICH
IS LARGE. PAST EXPERIENCE IS THAT SUCH OUTBREAKS GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR... CLOUD COVER ON TODAYS
POLAR ORBITING IMAGERY IS EXTENSIVE...MOST OF IT MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS. THE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY UPWARD AND
IT APPEARS THAT THE NEWLY NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONALL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LASTING. THE GSM MODEL FORECASTS SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE ARCTIC
SLOPE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COME UP...MAINLY
IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. THE COLDEST WEATHER IN THE STATE IS OVER
THE EASTERN ARCTIC SLOPE...WHERE EXTENSIVE AREAS OF 40 BELOW SHOW
ON THE POLAR ORBITING IMAGERY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ217-AKZ218.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ223.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

FEB 08