Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48
HOURS. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH MOVEMENT OF BERING LOW
AT SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT SAME IDEA.

THETA E AND SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH ALIGN PRETTY WELL. ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO POP WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONE 216 ALREADY. THESE SHOULD SPREAD TO ZONE
221...222...219...224 AND POSSIBLY TO 223 THIS AFTERNOON.

BIG CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER
EASTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY. A LOW WELL SUPPORTED ALOFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CREATE A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATELY STRONG
CHINOOK OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THUS THE EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORIES OVER THE INTERIOR ALASKA RANGE ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR FRIDAY.

THE MAIN MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH AND NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE
SUNDAY AND PUSH SOME COOLER AIR BACK DOWN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA.

ARCTIC COAST CAN EXPECT OFFSHORE FLOW SO FOG WILL BE SCARCE FOR
THE MOST PART AS LONG AS THE SOUTH WINDS HOLD TRUE.

ONCE AGAIN...BIGGEST CONCERN IMMEDIATELY WILL BE THE WINDS IN THE
ALASKA RANGE ZONES BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE ALASKA
RANGE ZONES HAVE SPARKED RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ONLY THE FLOOD WATCH IN ZONE 214 IS OF CONCERN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

CF MAY 08