Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1259 PM ADT WED APR 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY IN THE BEAUFORT SEA LIFTS OUT TO THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY
12Z SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 0C AT FAIRBANKS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE 40S BY SATURDAY...AND LIKELY
WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM, SNOW IS STILL FALLING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL TAPER OFF AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO CANADA BY THIS EVENING. HEAVY SNOW
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY
UNTIL 6 PM FOR ZONES 226 AND A SNOW ADVISORY FOR 224.

AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SNOW AS SHORTWAVES RIDE UP OVER THE
RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL QPF INDICATING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS POINT.

HYDROLOGY...A RAPID WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK
AND POSSIBLY SOME BREAKUP RELATED ISSUES. THERE IS CURRENTLY 13
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT FAIRBANKS WITH A LIQUID EQUIVALENT
OF 2.3 INCHES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ224.

HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

APR 08