Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 051608
RFWAFG

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
808 AM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE...

AKZ223-060015-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080606T0600Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
808 AM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR WINDS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 MPH FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF ZONE 223. THE WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF ZONE 223 WILL
NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE PASSES
OF ZONE 226. RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT TODAY.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RH VALUES
WILL RECOVER AFTER 10 PM AND WINDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY REDUCING
RED FLAG POTENTIAL.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AKZ226-060015-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080606T0600Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
808 AM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR WINDS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 MPH FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF ZONE 223. THE WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF ZONE 223 WILL
NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE PASSES
OF ZONE 226. RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT TODAY.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RH VALUES
WILL RECOVER AFTER 10 PM AND WINDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY REDUCING
RED FLAG POTENTIAL.


A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 052117
RFWAFG

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
117 PM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR WINDS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION FOR A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR WINDS FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE
ALASKA RANGE...

AKZ223-060600-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080606T0600Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
117 PM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR WINDS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING. 

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 MPH FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF ZONE 223 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF ZONE 223 WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE PASSES OF ZONE 226. RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT 
THIS AFTERNOON. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER AFTER 10 PM AND WINDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY
REDUCING RED FLAG POTENTIAL.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

AKZ226-060600-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080606T0600Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
117 PM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING FOR WINDS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM ADT THIS
EVENING. 

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE PASSES OF ZONE 226 THIS AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER AFTER
10 PM AND WINDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY REDUCING RED FLAG POTENTIAL.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

000 
WWAK63 PAFG 060542
RFWAFG

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
942 PM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...

AKZ223-226-060645-
/X.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080606T0600Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
942 PM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 



$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
549 AM ADT THU JUN 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND.
A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA FROM
THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTH THROUGH SAT WITH COOLING MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRI TO SERVE TO FOCUS
CONVECTION.

INSTABILITY IS WEAK TO MODERATE OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AM WITH
FAIRBANKS AND MCGRATH SOUNDINGS SHOWING OVER 250 JOULES OF CAPE.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOST INLAND AREAS FROM
THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTH TODAY...OVER THE INTERIOR FRI...AND OVER
THE AREA EAST OF UMIAT TO MCGRATH SAT.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM GLENNALLEN TO EAGLE IS STILL
CREATING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SHOWERS EAST OF FAIRBANKS. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO DENALI TO ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 4PM THU...TO
MINCHUMINA TO ARCTIC VILLAGE BY 4AM FRI...TO MCGRATH TO ANAKTUVUK
PASS BY 4PM FRI AND THEN WEAKENING IN PLACE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS NOW JUST WEST OF THIS TROUGH TO MOVE WEST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THESE
SHOWERS DROPPED UP BETWEEN .25-1.00 INCH OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA
LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT 25-.50 INCH WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTON SOUND WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATE.

A THIRD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LATE FRI TO CAUSE MORE SHOWERS THERE.

AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM BARTER ISLAND TO A LOW NEAR BARROW TO POINT
HOPE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. EXPECT MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE FRONT AND ALL SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT FOG ALONG THE FRONT WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS.

A 997 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THIS LOW MOVES
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4AM
SAT AT THE SURFACE AND 500 MB. THE NAM DID MUCH BETTER THAN THE
GFS HANDLING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
AND THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIP THAT FELL FROM IT.
FOR THIS REASON WE FAVOR THE NAM IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE HEAVIER PRECIP THAT IT GIVES THROUGH FRI AS A RESULT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL RED FLAG POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND
FALLING TO NEAR 30% TODAY FOR ZONES 226 AND 223.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN DROPPED .25 INCH OVER MOST OF ZONE 222 OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCAL AREAS OF ONE INCH...AND A MODERATE SIZE AREA OF THE
UPPER CHENA BASIN RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING
ON THE UPPER CHENA GAGE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB JUN 08