Gale Warning 74, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
611 AM AKST MON DEC 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST MON NIGHT THEN PERSIST THERE. A 1039 MB LOW OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED BUT SLOWLY WEAKEN. CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST UNDER THIS HIGH.

A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IN NORTHWEST AK WILL
DECREASE THIS MORNING.

A STRONG LOW IN TH WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA TUE PM AND THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY 3AM TUE...TO THE
ALASKA RANGE BY 3PM TUE...AND TO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TUE NIGHT.
THIS IS CAUSING THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST OF ALASKA TO INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 20-40 MPH DEVELOPING IN USUAL WIND AREAS. THIS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THE NEW 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS NOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS SHOULD SEE COLD
WIND CHILLS IN ZONES SURROUNDING THIS WHERE COLD AIR WILL FLOW OUT
SUCH AS ZONES 218 219 220 221 222 AND 223. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE
MERGED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THESE ZONES INTO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES TO COVER WINDS AND WIND CHILLS.

ARCTIC SLOPE...
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUE AS
THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. EXPECT BLOWING SNOW AND COLD WIND CHILLS TO
DEVELOP BUT DO NOT EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LACK OF
NEW SNOW ON THE ARCTIC COAST. DAY SHIFT MAY CHECK ON AMOUNT OF
LOSE SNOW AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WWA FOR BLOWING SNOW AND LOW
WIND CHILLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3 AM WED.
AFTER THAT PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE BERING STRAIT TUE PM.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ216.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB DEC 08