Gale Warning 51, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
991 MB LOW EAST OF WRANGELL ISLAND WILL CURVE NORTHEAST TO 280
MILES NORTH OF BARROW 4AM TUE AND THEN MAKE A COMPLETE CIRCLE OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA TO 270 MILE NORTH OF BARROW 10 PM WED AND TO 320
MILES NORTHEAST OF BARROW 4PM THU. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING TO
WAINWRIGHT TO LISBURNE 10 PM MON...TO DEADHORSE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS
TO POINT HOPE 4AM TUE AND TO CANADA BORDER TO KOTZEBUE 4PM TUE AND
TO NORTHWAY TO NOME 4PM WED.

OCCLUSION FROM JUST EAST OF TALKEETNA TO CENTRAL TO DAWSON
DISSIPATING BUT UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER MOVING FROM DAWSON TO
80 MILES EAST OF FAIRBANKS 4AM TUE THEN AFTER 4PM TUE MOVING EAST
INTO CANADA AHEAD OF OCCLUSION FROM ARCTIC.

MODELS...PREFER GFS IN MOVING EASTERN INTERIOR VORTICITY CENTER
EAST AFTER 24 HOURS RATHER THAN WRF/NAM WHICH DRAGS IT SOUTH.
IN MEDIUM TERM HPC LEANING ON GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS CREATING MORE
OF A TROUGH OVER AK AS OPPOSED TO THE FLAT RIDGE BY THE ECMWF ON
SAT AND SUN...BY MON NEW ECMWF AND GFS ARE CLOSE WITH UPPER TROUGH
OVER WRN AK.

NORTH SLOPE...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH WINDS WESTERN COASTAL ZONES...GUSTS
TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING...SHIFTING
TO WESTERLY 30 MPH WITH FROPA. WINDS ALSO INCREASING OVER EASTERN
ARCTIC BUT TO ABOUT 30 MPH...SHIFT TO WEST WITH FROPA. RAIN AHEAD
OF FRONT...FEW SHOWERS BEHIND FROPA. WINDS DROPPING OFF MORE TUE
PM BUT PICKING UP SOME WED AS PARENT LOW IN BEAUFORT CURVES BACK
TOWARD ARCTIC COAST...SO MORE WEST WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH A
LITTLE ON THU.

WESTERN ALASKA...RAIN AHEAD OF OCCLUSION WITH SOME SHOWERS
AFTERWARD OVER NORTHERN ZONES...RAIN LINGERING SOUTHER ZONES AS
OCCLUSION DECELERATES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SOME MIXING WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND RAIN...MAINLY NOME NORTH.
ANOTHER SHOT OR RAIN MOVING IN THU OVER NORTHERN ZONES AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM BACKS UP NORTH OVER BERING STRAIT AND AN EASTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CHUKCHI.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BANDS OF RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUING WEST OF TOK TO EIELSON AND DRIFTING WEST OVER THE
FAIRBANKS AREA THIS PM. MIXED SNOW OR WET SNOW IN ZONE 226 THIS
EVENING BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE ISSUED
WATCH FOR ZONES 224 223 AND 226...AND 222 FOR SALCHA RIVER
ONLY. CHENA AND CHATANIKA RIVERS WILL HAVE RISES BUT NOT LIKELY
NEAR BANKFUL. RAIN TURING INTERMITTENT TUE AS VORTICITY CENTER
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...THEN ARCTIC OCCLUSION BRINGING IN ANOTHER
DOSE BY EVENING. SOME DRYING EXPECTED WED THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
PERSIST IN FAST NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...ARCTIC LOW REMAINING OVER
BEAUFORT SEA WILL POSE SOME THREAT OF MINOR BEACH EROSION TO
BARROW AREA PREDOMINATELY...THOUGH AREAS OF SEA ICE MAY LIKELY
PUSH ONSHORE AFTER TONIGHTS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LESSEN THE WAVE
ACTION OVERALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES 222 (SALCHA ONLY) AND TANANA
TRIBUTARIES OF ZONES 223 AND 226..RIVERS OF 224 WEST OF TOK. ALSO
EXPECT SMALL STREAM TO BE FULL IN ZONE 226 FROM RICHARDSON HIGHWAY
TO TOK CUTOFF. SOME WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUE AM IF
PRECIP LIVES UP TO MODELS VALUES. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST
OF FAIRBANKS AREA AND WEST OF TOK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.
&&

JL JUL 08