Gale Warning 49, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFG 280141 AAA
CWFNSB

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
541 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

UPDATED AREA 225

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-281400-
541 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON MORNING
THEN MOVE EAST TO EXTEND FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE SOUND MON
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH DEMARCATION POINT AT NOON MON AND 
WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ225-281400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
541 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

UPDATED WINDS TONIGHT

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-281400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
541 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO
8 FT.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-281400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
541 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE. FOG CLEARING AROUND 
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT BECOMING W.  
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT.  
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT.  
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-281400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
541 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. FOG. 
.MON...SE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ245-281400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
541 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

TF/DA/RT JUL 08

000
FZAK51 PAFG 281119
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
319 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-290230-
319 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE CHUKCHI SEA MON MORNING
THEN MOVE EAST TO EXTEND FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE SOUND MON
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH DEMARCATION POINT AT NOON TUE AND 
WEAKEN. THE 984 MB LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY 400 N OF BARROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$

PKZ225-290230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
319 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 40 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING
TO 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-290230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
319 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-290230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
319 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT BECOMING W.
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-290230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
319 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 5 FT BECOMING SE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-290230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
319 AM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

.TODAY...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JK/CB JUL 08

000
FZAK51 PAFG 282238
CWFNSB

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-291200-
238 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 991 MB LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TO 400
NM NORTH OF BARROW AS A 985 MB LOW AND THEN REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ225-291200-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
238 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-291200-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
238 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT SHIFTING W 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-291200-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
238 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT SHIFTING W 25 KT BY EARLY
TUE MORNING. RAIN. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS TO 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS TO 4 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS TO 3 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS TO 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT.  SEAS ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ240-291200-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
238 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO
10 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.  
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-291200-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
238 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JL/SDB JUL 08

000
FZAK51 PAFG 291046
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-300330-
246 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 990 MB LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND PUSH INTO
THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING.

$$

PKZ225-300330-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
246 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-300330-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
246 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-300330-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
246 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-300330-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
246 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-300330-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
246 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

JK/BF JUL 08

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE NICELY AGREEABLE ON THE
FORECAST OF A BIG OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA
STARTING TUESDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER ON THIS, AND IT
BRINGS IN A STRONG WESTERLY JET OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM LOOKS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER ON THIS EVENT. IT MAY NOT LOOK
LIKE IT IS LATE JULY, BUT ALL OF THIS IS REAL, JUST LIKE LAST
WEEKS SNOW OVER THE WEST ARCTIC. ALTHOUGH THIS MONTH HAS BEEN
COOL AND GLOOMY OVER MUCH OF THE REALM, PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS
THAT A CHILLY AND CLOUDY JULY CAN EASILY BE FOLLOWED BY A FINE
AUGUST WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. WELL SEE ON THIS ONE.

A LOW ALOFT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS ALOFT TO THE EAST
INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE INCOMING ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
BE ESPECIALLY STRONG ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL TO THE EAST INTERIOR AND THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA
RANGE ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING MONDAY NIGHT, CIRCULATION AROUND THE
ARCTIC LOW WILL COVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE INCOMING CHUKCHI SEA SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 250
MILES NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF THE 18Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS LOW IS MOVING EAST ABOUT 35 KNOTS, WHICH
PUTS IT ON SCHEDULE. AFTER MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL BE STRONG, AND SWEEP OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS OF ALASKA
ON MONDAY EVENING AND EXIT TO THE EAST BEAUFORT SEA TUESDAY. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BRIEF SOUTHWEST GALE TO THE WATERS
FROM BERING STRAIT TO POINT HOPE ON MONDAY AND FROM POINT HOPE TO
POINT FRANKLIN ON MONDAY EVENING.

CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL FOLLOW IT OVER ALL OF NORTHERN
ALASKA NORTH OF BERING STRAIT AND THE ARCTIC CIRCLE IN THE
INTERIOR. AS A RESULT OF ALL OF THIS, SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE WEST
ARCTIC TUESDAY, AND WILL SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ARCTIC
NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE EASTERN ARCTIC OF
ALASKA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY, DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME PLACES WILL SEE A 30 DEGREE DROP, FROM THE 60S TO THE
30S, AS THIS TRANSPIRES. STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING IN THE WEST ARCTIC WILL BEGIN. THIS WEEK IS NO OCCASION
FOR PERSISTENCE FORECASTS.

THE COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EXITING INTO THE YUKON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED IN SHORT OVER BY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLOUDY AND RAINY WEATHER OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE AND SEWARD PENINSULA UP OVER
THE ARCTIC. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA THURSDAY AND ON TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME CLEARING AND WARMING SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS ARE STRUGGLING BY THIS WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS COMMON IN FAST-MOVING WEATHER SUCH AS THIS. THE GFS FORECAST OF
CONTINUED BUILDING OVER THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH HOLDS A COLD
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND THROUGH TUESDAY AUGUST 5.
THE GFS MODEL PROBABLY FORECASTS TOO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER THE MAINLAND IN THE WEEK FOLLOWING THE PRESENT WEEK, BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE CORRECTLY SEIZING ON AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE END OF THIS
PRESENT WEEK. THIS ASPECT OF THE GFS FORECAST, AS WELL AS ITS
AVOIDANCE OF PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND, ARE
THE REASONS THE GFS MID RANGE FORECASTS SEEM TO BE THE BETTER
CHOICE FOR NOW.

THE ONLY PART OF NORTHERN ALASKA THAT WILL HAVE RELATIVELY SETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4 (WEDNESDAY, JULY 30 AND
THURSDAY, JULY 31)...NONE ON JULY 30. BRIEF GALE POSSIBLE FROM
BERING STRAIT TO CAPE LISBURNE JULY 31.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST INTERIOR.
HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RECENT RAINS WILL KEEP THE
SCENE CALM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR WEEKS, RIVER STAGES HAVE
BEEN SURPRISINGLY LOW AND CONTINUE TO BE SO. IN SPITE OF
CONTINUING BOUTS OF RAIN, RIVER STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ACTION LEVELS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

TF JUL 08