Gale Warning 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A CHANGE IN REGIME IS UNDER WAY AS THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS GIVES
WAY TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH LOWER HEIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE. A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR BROOKS RANGE WED AFTERNOON AND WED NIGHT.
SOME WEAK RIDGING MAY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT
THE OUTLOOK THEREAFTER APPEARS UNCERTAIN AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY.

SURFACE...
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUE AS A MODERATE LOW OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MOVES WESTWARD IN A CYCLONIC TRAJECTORY AND FILLS.
MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...KEEPING ARCTIC COAST SKIES FILLED WITH STRATUS.

THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND NORTHWARD MOVING OCCLUSION WILL BRING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SOME DYNAMICS
AS WELL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH AND A WEAKENING LOW
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE
DYNAMICS.

CONVECTIVE CHARTS INDICATING GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
ALL THE INTERIOR WED AND WED EVENING...LIFTED INDEXES MAINLY
FROM 0 TO AROUND +3 AND SOME AREAS OF 100-200 JOULE CAPES.
BEST VERTICAL TOTALS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.

FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE BEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE...
AGAIN WITH LIFTED INDEXES MAINLY IN THE 0 TO +3 RANGE AND
AREAS OF MAINLY 100-300 JOULE CAPES. VERTICAL TOTAL NUMBERS ARE
LITTLE SMALLER BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE THERE
IS LESS INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SURFACE AND GENERALLY CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH PASSES IN AKZ225-AKZ226 WEST
OF TOK CUTOFF THROUGH TUE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN WINDY PASS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TUE IN PARTS OF AKZ225-AKZ226.
LOCAL GUSTS TO 25+ MPH CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING IN AKZ223-AKZ224...
LIKELY REDEVELOPING TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BUCKLAND RIVER AT BUCKLAND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RF MAY 08