Gale Warning 45, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 121151
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
351 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-130230-
351 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BERING SEA AS A 978 MB LOW BY 3AM TUE AND THEN DRIFT EAST.
A WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTON SOUND BY 4AM
TUE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA BY 4AM WED.

$$

PKZ200-130230-
NORTON SOUND-
351 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
3 FT.
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-130230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
351 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ215-130230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
351 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S. 
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-130230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
351 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

MAY 08

000
FZAK52 PAFG 122205
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
205 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131315-
205 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
975 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE WEST 15 KT AND SLOWLY 
WEAKEN. A WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP OVER NORTON
SOUND BY 4AM TUE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
BY 4AM WED.

$$

PKZ200-131315-
NORTON SOUND-
205 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

PKZ210-131315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
205 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
5 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS CALM. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS CALM.  

$$

PKZ215-131315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
205 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S. 
.WED...W WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-131315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
205 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT MID DAY. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RF/TF MAY 08

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
525 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA WILL PERSIST TODAY AND RECEDE
INTO WESTERN CANADA MON AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY NORTH. THIS MEANS CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY WARM AND DRY
TODAY AND MON IN THE INTERIOR...THEN COOL AND MOISTEN LATER IN
THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TUE. THIS MEANS STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH TUE ALONG WITH EAST WINDS 15-25 KT.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE TO
THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY 4PM SUN AND THEN DISSIPATE. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DIMINISH SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.

A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH FROM NORTHWAY TO GALENA WILL PERSIST INTO MON.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THIS TROUGH, BUT SINCE LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE HIGH BASED AND
MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE FORMING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY
EXPECT GAP FLOW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
NORTH TO A BETHEL TO NORTHWAY LINE BY 4PM...TO NORTON SOUND TO
EAGLE BY 4AM TUE...AND TO THE BERING STRAIT TO OLD CROW BY 4PM
TUE. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MON GIVING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MON PM WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
TROUGH INTO TUE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AND TUE ALONG
THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR PATTERNS THROUGH TUE.
THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH NORTH OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA MON AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE ALOFT MORE THAN THE NAM DOES.
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRONG SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF ALASKA THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS BEST.

MODELS SHOW 850 MB UP A DEGREE OR SO TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR
WHILE INCREASING 1-2 DEGREES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST
TODAY AND MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ZONES 223 225 AND 226 THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO MON MAY LEAD TO RFW. ALSO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 222 AND 224 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THREAT ON TANANA RIVER APPEARS OVER.
ON THE YUKON THE BREAK UP FRONT IS BETWEEN BEAVER AND TANANA

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB MAY 08