Gale Warning 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AST SAT JAN 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE TO LIE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BY
3PM SUN AND THEN PERSIST INTO MON. VERY COLD AIR UNDER THIS RIDGE
WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 40S BELOW. WEST WINDS IN ZONES 203 AND 204 WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THOSE AREAS. STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE USUAL CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT SUCH AS KOTZEBUE AND UNALAKLEET. WILL SEE EAST WINDS
DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR DRAINAGE SPOTS ON SUN SUCH ZONE 223
AND THE UPLANDS OF ZONES 219 AND 221 WHERE COLD WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP.

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO
CAPE NAVARIN TO 100 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY 3AM
SUN...TO THE BERING STRAIT TO BETHEL BY 3PM SUN...TO POINT LAY TO
BETHEL BY 3AM MON...AND TO WAINWRIGHT TO UNALAKLEET TO MCGRATH BY
3PM MON. THERE WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 KT NEAR THE FRONT
ALONG WITH 3- 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINDS AND
SNOW WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND INLAND. HAVE ISSUED
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONES 213 AND 214. THIS IS POSSIBLE IN ZONES 211
AND 209 BUT APPEARS THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE SNOW
DEVELOPS SO HAVE ONLY ISSUED WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL EITHER
UPGRADE OR CHANGE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT.
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF REST
OF WEST COAST. ADDRESSED CURRENT WIND CHILL PROBLEMS ON WEST COAST
THIS EVENING BY MENTIONING THEM IN THE FORECAST BUT HAVE NOT
ISSUED BRIEF WIND CHILL ADVISORY SO AS TO NOT MUDDLE THE MESSAGE
OF THE BIG STORM COMING FOR EARLY SUN WITH TWO HEADLINES.

THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST BARROW
WEST ON SUN AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.
THE NAM AGAIN APPEARS TO OVERDO THE PRECIP AMOUNTS ON SUN AND SUN
NIGHT AS THIS FRONT IS MOVING WELL AWAY FROM THE MAIN SURFACE LOW CENTER
AND SHOULD BE LOSING ITS MOISTURE STREAM AS IT MOVES INLAND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ209-AKZ211.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ219-
AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ226.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ215.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ245.
&&

JAN 08