Brisk Wind Advisory 91, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
229 PM ADT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS AND NAM MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE GFS MOVES BOTH THE CURRENT BERING SEA LOW
AND ITS SUCCESSOR NOW EAST OF JAPAN FASTER THAN THE NAM. THE GFS
IS USUALLY BETTER ON SUCH WEATHER SYSTEMS.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND
SOLID MASS OF CLOUDS MOVING UP OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE WEST
INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION TO THE
WEST HALF OF THE MAINLAND.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO SETTLE OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS A GOOD PATTERN FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THE WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE HAS COME FAR ENOUGH
SUCH THAT RAIN IS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT INBOUND LOW NOW OFF JAPAN IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO REACH
NORTON SOUND ON THURSDAY AND THE BEAUFORT SEA ON FRIDAY. BEYOND
THIS...THE GFS FORECASTS AN OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR OVER THE REALM
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS WORKS OUT...COLDER WEATHER
AND PLENTY OF SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL
RESULT. THIS WILL BE ONE ON WHICH TO KEEP A WARY EYE.

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE VARIOUS MODELS AGREE THROUGH FRIDAY BY
BRINGING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND FRIDAY...PRESUMABLY
FOLLOWED BY THE COULD OUTBREAK FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FORECASTS A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CIRCULATION
PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA BY WEDNESDAY...AND
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

TF MAR 08