Brisk Wind Advisory 75, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
531 AM AST SAT MAR 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS MORNING HAS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES THAT WILL INTERRUPT THE FLOW AND
TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG LOW THAT WAS IN THE NORTHERN GULF 24
HOURS AGO HAS NOW PUSHED WELL INLAND WITH A BROAD LOW THAT COVERS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO AN OLD LOW NEAR THE
PRIBILOFS.  MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
THAT THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND ROTATES OUT TO A LINE FROM
THE NORTON SOUND SOUTHWEST TO THE PRIBILOFS BY THIS EVENING.  THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A NEW LOW LIFTS NORTH TO A
POSITION JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

AN ARCTIC HIGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF RUSSIA ACROSS THE ARCTIC
AND BEAUFORT SEAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN ALASKA
NEXT WEEK.

ARCTIC...THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WIND CHILLS AND
BLOWING SNOW.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED AS
THE BROAD LOW NOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR FILLS AND THE NEW LOW PUSHES
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
OF 15 TO 30 MPH GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH CLOUDS IN PLACE
EAST OF BARROW TO KEEP WIND CHILLS SAFELY ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS
TODAY. WEST OF BARROW TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP WIND
CHILLS OF 50 TO 55 BELOW AND WILL EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR ZONES 201 AND 202 THROUGH TODAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORIES FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OR TWO. THE BLOWING SNOW
WILL LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE AT TIMES.

INTERIOR...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE WIND BLOWING IN THE
PASSES THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
STRONGEST WIND LOOKS TO BE TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE STRONGER WIND AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH OF THE RANGE AND THE UPPER FLOW BACKS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TODAY.  LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE BEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT SHOULD LIFT OUT OF ZONE 219 EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CANCEL THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING.  IT APPEARS THAT FROM ABOUT BETTLES
NORTH IN 219 THAT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING WILL
BE LESS THAN AN 2 INCHES. AT BETTLES THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN DOWN
TO A HALF MILE AT TIMES TONIGHT...BUT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS THROUGH
12Z ONLY AN INCH OF NEW SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. DIFFICULT TO KNOW
FOR SURE WHAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS ZONE 218...BUT THE SNOW HAS MOSTLY
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN ARCTIC VILLAGE.

WEST COAST...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST BENIGN WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST.  THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
SNOW MOST NOTABLY IN ZONES 212 AND 217 TODAY...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY ONLY SOME AREAS OF MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LEFT ALONG AND NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.

MIDRANGE...THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST PUSHES INLAND NEXT WEEK
AS THE PERSISTENT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS DOWN TOWARD NORTHERN ALASKA
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD A MORE SEASONABLE PATTERN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND
A DECIDED LACK ON ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CB MAR 08

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