Brisk Wind Advisory 140, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
527 AM ADT SUN JUN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH EUROPEAN
MODELS. YESTERDAY THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SPLIT THE ENERGY AND
AMPLIFIED THE LOW INTO A VERY DEEP CUT OFF LOW JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST BY THURS. TODAY THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE
ENERGY...BUT HAS A MUCH WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC COAST MON AM.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH YESTERDAY WAS KEEPING THE LIONS SHARE
OF THE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA NOW
DROPS THE LOW SOUTH TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY THURSDAY AND THEN
SWINGS IT EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS VERY
HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AS WELL AS THE HIGH ARCTIC...AND UNTIL
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE SOME
CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO RUN CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION. FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THE MOST LIKELY
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.

AT THIS POINT THE BEST GUESS WOULD BE THAT THE OCCLUSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSHES INLAND
WED-FRI WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST...AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN INTERIOR. IT LOOKS PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH.

ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK AND WILL TREND DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE MID-LATE WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST AND
THE RIDGING ERODES. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
ON MONDAY WHERE THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH BETWEEN EAGLE AND HUGHES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING
RIDGE. NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. MIN RHS
COULD BE IN THE TEENS AGAIN OVER NORTHERN 221 AND BELOW 30 PER
CENT IN ZONES 216 219 AND 220 THROUGH 226.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO REPORTED CHANGE IN CONDITIONS NEAR THE COLVILLE
RIVER DELTA. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ203.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ235.
&&

KS/CB JUN 08