Brisk Wind Advisory 112, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
154 PM ADT SAT APR 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT 48 HOURS. ONLY
REAL DIFFERENCE HAS BEEN THAT THE MODELS ARE UNDER DOING THE
STRENGTH OF LOW OFF THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST.
OMEGA BLOCK FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS NOT PROGRESSIVE THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. HEIGHTS REMAIN
NEARLY CONSTANT THROUGH WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RAPIDLY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELT SOUTH OF
THE BROOKS RANGE.
LOW NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED COMPLEX FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD TO BE NEAR BANKS ISLAND BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER LOW PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER
AND SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST
COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ONLY PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITY WILL BE MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED
UP AND AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND MUCH
OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE THAT OF RAIN.

THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE DUE TO GAP FLOW
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING ELEVATED AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS AXIS FORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TODAY MARKS THE START OF A RAPID AND EXTENDED WARM-UP
THAT MAY LEAD TO IMPLICATIONS IN TERMS OF BREAK-UP IN THE NEXT FEW
WEEKS. IN THE SHORTER TERM...RAPID SNOW MELT WILL BE LIKELY AND
WITH THE GROUND STILL FROZEN...POOLING WATER WILL BE LIKELY IN
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AND IN PARTICULAR NEAR SLOUGHS AND SMALL
TRIBUTARIES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CF APR 08