Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1230 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CANADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORT
RIDGE TRANSITS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. A DEVELOPING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...EVOLVING INTO
A MODERATELY DEEP CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
BY 12Z TUE...WEAKENING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY
12Z WED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST
AREAS BY 12 WED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST WHICH
WILL SEE LESS WARMING ALOFT.

SURFACE...
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN OCCLUSION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BERING WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH
00Z TUE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STRETCH OUT AND WEAKEN...
AND LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MON EVENING.

MOST MODEL RUNS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREE VERY WELL ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW...WHICH MAY GENERATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER ZONES 211-213-214 LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

PROGGED LOW POSITION/CENTRAL PRESSURE...
12Z MON    48N/177W   975 MB
00Z TUE    53N/173W   965-970 MB
12Z TUE    58N/168W   955-965 MB
00Z WED    62N/165W   970-975 MB
12Z WED    65N/164W   990 MB

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MON NIGHT
OR EARLY TUE MORNING IN ZONES 211-213-214 AS GALE FORCE
WINDS AND SNOW SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD.

LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW A POSSIBILITY IN AND NEAR THE NULATO HILLS
TUE OR TUE NIGHT...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MON NIGHT...BECOMING EASTERLY 15-25 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON
AS THE INCOMING LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...TIGHTENING
THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES IN ZONES 224-225-226 THROUGH
TONIGHT...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND WIND CHILL ALONG THE ALASKA
HIGHWAY AND IN THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES SHOULD END BY MORNING AS A
MODERATE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SHOULD A SEE PERIOD OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS MOISTURE FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM SPREADS EAST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

 &&

RF JAN 08