Blizzard Warning 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK41 PAFG 222201
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
101 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

AKZ204-230615-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080223T2100Z/
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
101 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST SATURDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST SATURDAY. 

A WEST WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH THE VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO ZERO AT TIMES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE ANY TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY HAZARDOUS.

$$

AKZ203-230615-
/X.NEW.PAFG.BS.Y.0013.080222T2201Z-080223T1500Z/
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK
101 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY. 

A WEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH THE VISIBILITY
FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE. AT TIMES...THE
VISIBILITY WILL LOCALLY BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES.

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

000 
WWAK41 PAFG 230555
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
855 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

AKZ204-231500-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080223T2100Z/
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
855 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM AST SATURDAY...

A WEST WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED
TO ZERO AT TIMES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE WIND GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE ANY TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY HAZARDOUS.

$$

AKZ203-231500-
/X.CON.PAFG.BS.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-080223T1500Z/
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK
855 PM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST
SATURDAY...

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST
SATURDAY. 

A WEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH THE VISIBILITY
FREQUENTLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE. AT TIMES...THE
VISIBILITY WILL LOCALLY BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WIND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES.

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

000 
WWAK41 PAFG 231339
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
439 AM AST SAT FEB 23 2008

AKZ203-231445-
/X.CAN.PAFG.BS.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-080223T1500Z/
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK
439 AM AST SAT FEB 23 2008

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELED THE
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST HAS
DIMINISHED AND VISIBILITIES ARE ABOVE ONE MILE.

$$

AKZ204-232100-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080223T2100Z/
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
439 AM AST SAT FEB 23 2008

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY. WEST
WINDS TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY OFTEN LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER MILE CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE AT MID DAY TODAY.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE ANY TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY HAZARDOUS.

$$

000 
WWAK41 PAFG 232017
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1117 AM AST SAT FEB 23 2008

AKZ204-232130-
/X.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080223T2100Z/
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
1117 AM AST SAT FEB 23 2008

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING. 

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
A WEST WIND OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE VISIBILITY A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. THE WIND WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
454 AM AST FRI FEB 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GIVE SIMILAR RESULTS WITH ONE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION...THE GFS BRINGS DOWN COLDER AIR ALOFT FROM THE
ARCTIC INTO THE NORTH INTERIOR STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
DIFFERENCE AT 850 MB IS A WHOPPING 10 DEGREES C. SO THE GFS MOS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOLLOWED FOR THAT PART OF THE WORLD STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND GOING FORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIODS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A TROUGH ALOFT TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
ARCTIC OF ALASKA FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...AND REACHING THE YUKON
BORDER EARLY MONDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...THE GFS FORECASTS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA
THROUGH MONDAY...AND EXITING INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY. THIS
FORECAST SEEMS OVERDONE...BUT THE ONSET OF NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THAT COMES ARE PART OF THIS FORECAST LOOKS
REASONABLE...AS DO A FORECAST OF BELOW ZERO NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES OVER NEARLY ALL THE REALM. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE THE UPCOMING
WEEK APPEARS SET TO BRING SOME CLASSIC FINE EARLY SPRING WEATHER
TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

OVER THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BLOW...ACCOMPANIED WITH BLOWING SNOW. THE SMALL SCALE BUT
PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO
THE NORTH SEWARD PENINSULA IS A TYPICAL PART OF THE MESOSCALE
STRUCTURE OF SUCH AN EVENT. THE NAM 20 MODEL...WHICH IS DESIGNED
TO PICK UP SUCH MESOSCALE FEATURES...HAS PREDICTED THIS WELL...AND
FORECASTS IT TO HOLD UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. UP ON THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST...THE NAM 20 SURE SEEMS TO UNDER FORECASTING THE WEST WINDS
THAT ARE NOW DEVELOPING. THE GFS...IN CONTRAST...IS HANDING THE
EASTERN ARCTIC WINDS PRETTY WELL. THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL MODEL
DIFFERENCE.

COOLING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A BIG LOWERING OF FREEZING
LEVELS...DOWN TO ZERO IN MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN CHANGEABLE WEATHER...THERE IS A LARGE
MAGNITUDE IN THE FLUCTUATION. THIS CASE HOWEVER HAS MORE OF A
CHANGE THAN MOST. OFTEN IN LATE WINTER WARMINGS THERE IS NOT A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE EXTENT FORECAST HERE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

TF FEB 08