Storm Warning 226, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMING MORE SETTLED. NOT REAL CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING
TO SETTLE DOWN INTO A MORE STABLE ONE. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AND
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY SUNDAY
WHILE THE STRONG SURFACE LOW JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE MAIN PART OF THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT A
JET STREAK BETWEEN THE BERING SEA HIGH AND GULF LOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MAJOR FORECAST ISSUE FOR ALL AREAS WILL BE
WIND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND
WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND ARE ESPECIALLY
STRONG. THESE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE LOW IN THE GULF WEAKENS.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG LIVED SO A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLD AND BREEZY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131. HIGH WIND WARNING 171.
MARINE...GALE 120 121 129 141 155 160 165 170 171 175 176 179 180.
         STORM 130 132 138 140 150.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 160 165
                              180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 08