Storm Warning 207, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 061301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-070300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF ALASKA AND DISSIPATES. A 999 MB LOW 60 NM EAST OF ATKA 
MOVES SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS AFTERNOON. A WEATHER
FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-070300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-070300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
  

$$

PKZ165-070300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-070300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PACIFIC
SIDE...W WIND 15 KT.  SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PACIFIC SIDE... W
WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-070300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-070300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 30 KT EAST OF ATKA. SEAS 21 FT.

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT DIMINISHING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-070300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-070300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF ST. MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. E OF ST. MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-070300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1235 PM AKST FRI DEC 5 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN HAS
SET UP ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WITH TROUGHS OVER EASTERN ASIA AND
THE BERING SEA...BOTH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE TROPICS...AND
RIDGES OVER THE WEST PACIFIC/FAR WESTERN BERING AND THE EAST
PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THERE IS NOW A SINGLE
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND IS
NOW ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL
BERING LOW. WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND EASTERN
BERING SEA PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER AIR ALSO
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN.
STRONG NORTHERLIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING
FURTHER AS THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS DROPS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS
INDICATED BY BUOY 46035 WHERE WINDS ARE PEAKING AT 56KT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL WITH
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE IN THE FIRST
THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH AND WEST
WITH THE TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF MONDAY
AND NOW FORM A SECONDARY LOW BACK OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION.
IT IS TOO SOON TO COMPLETELY BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION...BUT WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WILL TREND HEAVILY TOWARD THE NEW
TRACK AND INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF REGION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

MAINLAND ALASKA...UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT. THUS...VERTICAL MOTIONS WILL INCREASE AND
STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO BRISTOL
BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN AND UP ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE. COOLING ALOFT WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE LOW REACHES THE WESTERN GULF AND FLOW
SHIFTS AROUND TO THE NORTH. AS THE BERING LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD
TOMORROW THE WESTERN BERING RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BERING SEA
TOWARD NORTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRYING AND COOLING
TREND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
WILL ALSO COOL...BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE
GULF WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHICH
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW BY SUNDAY. ON MONDAY A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF...BRINGING GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL AS STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO EVOLVE INTO A
MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EXPECT A BAND OF SOLID STORM FORCE WINDS
WEST OF THE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THE EASTERN BERING WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE STORM TONIGHT AND THE GRADUALLY COOL SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING RELATIVELY CALM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKE A STORM WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS STORM
WILL CLEAR OUT HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS BECOME
VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FROM THIS POINT
ONWARD. GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A VERY PROGRESSIVE...BUT AMPLIFIED
PATTERN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME EXTREMES...EITHER VERY WARM OR VERY
COLD...BUT NOT LASTING VERY LONG DO TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...172 175.
         GALE WARNING...176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 08