Storm Warning 192, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 230000
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
400 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WESTERN ALASKA LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 985 MB NEAR 59N 145W TUE
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO 978 MB NEAR 57N 139W TUE NIGHT
AND THEN WEAKEN TO 983 MB NEAR 53N 132W WED AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 231241
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 985 MB LOW NEAR 59N 149W WILL MOVE TO 56N 137W AND INTENSIFY TO 
977 MB. IT WILL THEN MOVE TO 47N 124W WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AND WEAKEN
TO 990 MB.
$$

PKZ351-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 240006
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 58N 143W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 977 MB NEAR 55N 136W
TUE NIGHT. IT WILL THEN MOVE TO 52N 132W WED AND WEAKEN TO 983 MB. A
1001 MB LOW NEAR 50N 172W WED NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 986 MB NEAR
55N 153W THU.

$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 241227
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 24 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 997 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE 
NEAR 57N 154W THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 989 MB. IT WILL THEN MOVE TO 
58N 146W THURSDAY NIGHT INTENSIFYING TO 975 MB. 
$$

PKZ351-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 242352
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 992 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WED NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH A 987 MB LOW DEVELOPING THU NEAR 58N 151W AND
STRENGTHENING TO 971 MB FRI NEAR 59N 143W FRI.

$$

PKZ351-251500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-251500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 
FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN DEC 21 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE CHANGING A BIT ON THE WAY THEY
WANT TO RESOLVE THE BERING SEA LOW. IT IS A SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH SHIFT
THAT THERE WILL BE AN IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN GULF AS WELL. THE BIG
SHORT TERM QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE BERING SEA AND MOVE VERY QUICKLY EASTWARD IN
THE JET STREAM AND ARRIVE JUST NORTH OF BRISTOL BAY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
BIG ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT ALL THE MODELS ARE NOW WANTING TO
BRING THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO THEN IS THAT THE LOW WILL GET CAUGHT IN THE JET STREAM AND
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. OFTEN THE LOW WILL LINGER IN THE
NORTH GULF COAST AREA BUT THE JET STREAM WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG
TO LET THAT HAPPEN WITH THIS LOW.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM GULF THERE IS A LARGE QUESTION WITH THE
MID RANGE TIME FRAME IN THE BERING SEA AS WELL. A LOW WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS AND
NAM HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING THIS LOW AMD MOVING IT NORTHWARD IN
SUCCESSIVE RUNS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE BEEN INSISTING THAT IT WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS IT DEVELOPS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA AND INTO THE INTERIOR BY TUESDAY. THE JET STREAM
IS SPLIT WITH A PORTION OF IT JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
KODIAK ISLAND. THIS SECTION OF THE JET WILL DESCEND SOUTHWARD WHILE
THE PORTION OF IT THAT IS COMING OFF OF JAPAN AND OVER SOUTHERN
KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA BY MONDAY. THIS JET WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RUN WEST TO EAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND THEN
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY. A RATHER ZONAL
FLOW WILL SET UP ALOFT BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...FOG HAS BECOME A LARGE ISSUE IN THE ANCHORAGE
AREA TODAY WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION IS HARD TO FIND AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
BEING THE ONLY SPOTS. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
A FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK AND BRING
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY. BY NEXT WEEKEND A BLOCKING RIDGE
MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEC 08