Storm Warning 144, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 222344
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 961 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN TO 974 MB 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THU MORNING THEN
DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THU AFTERNOON. A 1007 MB LOW 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL DISSIPATE 200 NM EAST OF SHEMYA THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 40 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 15 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT
INCREASING TO 22 FT IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 50 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO NE 45 KT THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING TO N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
EVENING. WINDS INCREASING TO SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE GULF OF ALASKA LOWS INLAND. WE PREFER THE
NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT 60 HOURS WHEN GFS TRIES TO
MOVE THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW RAPIDLY INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT WHILE ECMWF
HOLDS THE LOW BACK CLOSER TO MIDDLETON ISLAND.
ALL MODELS FAILED TO INITIALIZE THE MOISTURE FIELD WELL...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. GFS FAILS TO RECOGNIZE THE BROAD BAND OF
STAGNANT STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA AND RELATED SHOWERS ALMOST ENTIRELY. NAM DOES BETTER BUT POPS
ARE TOO HIGH. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MORNING MOS PACKAGES ARE SUSPECT.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
THREE STRONG LOWS EACH WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ANCHORAGE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE NEXT 60
HOURS.
LOW NO 1...A 976 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 967 MB JUST SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TUE NIGHT
THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT WED EVENING.
LOW NO 2...A 961 MB IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY TO 951 MB
JUST SOUTH OF ADAK TUE NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA THU MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WILL GRAZE THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING THEN MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY MORNING.
LOW NO 3...A 984 TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHIGNIK WED EVENING AND INTENSIFY TO 971 MB NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THU
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MOST OF THE PRECIP FROM LOW NO 1 SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
ANCHORAGE AOR...BUT WRAP AROUND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS A CONCERN TONIGHT ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN.
PLENTY OF RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY AS LOW NO
2 PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SEE LATEST WWAK72 NPWALU FOR
DETAILS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW NO 3 WILL
IMPACT KODIAK ISLAND...THE ALASKA PENINSULA...EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND
EASTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW CENTER
ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A GOOD PATTERN FOR SNOW FOR THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREA...WITH WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS DYNAMIC...USHERING IN A SERIES OF
MODERATE LOWS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
OUT WEST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING COOLER AND EVEN MORE WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 186 191 185.
MARINE...GALES  120 130 132 150 160 179 411 412
         STORMS 413 414 155 165 170 171 176
         HURRICANE FORCE  172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB OCT 08