Storm Warning 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 302120 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
120 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

UPDATED ZONES 120 AND 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-310200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST DISSIPATES
SAT AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEEPENS TO 981 MB SUN MORNING AS
IT MOVES 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 989 
MB SUN NIGHT OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
$$

PKZ120-310200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
120 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-310200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF 
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-310200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-310200-
PASSAGE CANAL
120 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-310200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-310200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
$$

PKZ138-310200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-310200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-310200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 302324
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 425 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 979 MB 
AS IT MOVES TO 200 NM EAST OF SAND POINT SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL
THEN WEAKEN TO 994 MB AS IT MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND MON.
$$

PKZ120-311400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-311400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-311400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-311400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 08 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT OR LESS. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE ALASKA WEATHER. FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH A WEAK RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHTLY OUT OF
PHASE SHORT-WAVE SOUTH OF THE BERING TROUGH. A VORT-MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS A VORT-MAX DROPPING
INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE BERING TROUGH ARE LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION
OF THE TROUGHS AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A
1000 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MAINLAND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED
JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
FEATURE OF CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OBSERVED
AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING BUT THAT HAS BEGUN TO BREAK
UP. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING ARE
RESULTING IN QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS AS THE STRATUS BREAKS.
THE COMBINATION OF RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND NORTH GULF
COAST SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...00Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF NORTH PACIFIC LOW TO KODIAK ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE 12Z UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WEST TRACK THAT BRINGS THE LOW TO SHELIKOF AND ACROSS INTO BRISTOL
BAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A TRACK JUST EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS-BASED FORECAST
FOR NOW. THE GFS IS ALSO MORE CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF LOW SOUTH OF
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING TO THE LOW TO NEAR COLD BAY
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MADE A LARGE JUMP EASTWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED OFF THE 00Z ECMWF FROM YESTERDAY WHICH
HAD A TRACK WEST OF THE GFS. THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WILL STICK
WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IT IS STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE
A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AS WELL. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THUS...EXPECT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE WILL BE
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE IMPACTS OF THE STORM
TRACKING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WILL SPREAD TO SOUTHCENTRAL. EXPECT
A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING
IT INLAND.

SOUTHWEST...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE
TO THE COAST TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD
OF IT KEEPING INLAND AREAS MAINLY DRY. THE LOW TRACKING TO KODIAK
SUNDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION AND
MAINLY AFFECT THE BRISTOL BAY REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
NEW LOW TO THE EAST BECOMES DOMINANT. ANOTHER STORM WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
ALEUTIANS...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK SO THIS COULD
CHANGE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE DROPPING INTO THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GFS 500MB 5-WAVE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT CURRENT STORM TRACK WITH LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND TRACKING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO PERSIST. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED MOVING
INTO THE FALL SEASON STORMS WILL BEGIN TO GET STRONGER AND PRODUCE
MORE RAIN AND WIND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 08