Storm Warning 106, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 150000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB
OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET THU MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE
BY THU EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA THU AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ120-151400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW WIND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING W WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-151400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT...THEN
BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-151400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-151400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED MAY 14 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 151137
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 987 MB LOW 30 NM EAST OF GORE POINT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
AND DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GULF THU AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-160200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS
MORNING. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU MAY 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
430 PM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WEST OF SAINT PAUL WITH A TROUGH TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAINS TO KODIAK ISLAND. ANOTHER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM NORTON SOUND TO THE UPPER YUKON
VALLEY ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE NORTH GULF COAST IS FURTHER WEAKENING THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
THAT MOVED ONSHORE YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY. ANOTHER MAJOR NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
ABOUT 660 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY. MOISTURE FROM A TYPHOON NEAR JAPAN IS
BEING ENTRAINED IN THE UPPER JET AND FED INTO THIS LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS HAVE FINALLY BEEN CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO THE
INCOMING NORTH PACIFIC STORM. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND THIS AGREES WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL
OUTPUT IS ALLOWING FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE SOME
CONCERN AS THIS LOW IS COMING FROM OUTSIDE THE MODEL DOMAIN AND HAS
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL ENERGY ENTRAINED INTO IT. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS
IN BEFORE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISSUES IN THE FIRE WEATHER
REALM FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE
EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING NORTH PACIFIC STORM
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE BUILDING RIDGE TO PRODUCE THE
STRONG SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND STRONG SOUTHEAST
CROSS BARRIER WIND IN THE NORTHERN COOK INLET TO MATANUSKA VALLEY
AREA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL
DROP OFF TONIGHT AS CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
INVERSION TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE INVERSION TO RAPIDLY BREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT PUSH OF WIND AND MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND WE EXPECT
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
AND SOUTHEAST EXPOSURES AS SOUTHEAST FLOW CAUSES DOWN SLOPING. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY IN THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND MATANUSKA VALLEY TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA AS THE STRONG WIND
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LATE WEDNESDAY THE LOW PUSH INLAND SPREADING CLOUDS AND COOLER MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMAIN OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IN THE WEST SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE SW
MAINLAND UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER STRATIFORM CONDITIONS
ARE PREVALENT ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST AND BRISTOL BAY COAST BUT
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE NIGHT TO THE EARLY MORNING
AS THE EAST OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING GULF
STORM. AS THE TROUGH AND LOW MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY WITH THE
WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE BERING SEA COASTAL AREAS AND INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN UNDER THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW STAYS MAINLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 150 155 175 176 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111 141.

SAM MAY 08