Small Craft Advisory 973, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST SUN DEC 7 2008

CORRECTION FOR TYPOS

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTIONS. GFS AND
UKMET ARE TAKING THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM UP THROUGH KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE IT NEAR KING SALMON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF TAKES THE STORM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA TUESDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE SOLUTION IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECWMF MODELS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SIBERIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AN UPPER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND BRISTOL BAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT THEN TO OVER
BRISTOL BAY WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING. A
CUTOFF UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...AN DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR KING SALMON TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST KENAI PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY
MONDAY. AREAS SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FROM THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH.

THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BERING THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE AS A NEW ONE FORMS OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS NEW LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
ARCTIC OCEAN BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
ALASKA THURSDAY. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120, 130, 132, 138
         GALE 125, 140, 141, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 172, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM DEC 08