Small Craft Advisory 887, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU NOV 13 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COMES AROUND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND LATER IN THE BERING SEA. THE COMPLEX LOW WILL HAVE MULTIPLE
CENTERS BY THIS TIME AND THE MODELS ARE GRASPING TO DETERMINE EXACTLY
WHERE EACH ONE WILL BE. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH SUCH A PATTERN
AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHANGES IN MODELS AS THIS SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE LARGE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS STILL IN PLACE.
IT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT SOME TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
RIDGING MOVES OVER THAT AREA AND A NEW LOW UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
THE JET STREAM CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE WELL SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS ALASKA. IT IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AROUND 160W AND THIS IS BRINGING IT AS FAR NORTH AS
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT WILL NOT
AFFECT THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE GULF OF ALASKA
OFFSHORE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
TO COOK INLET AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE VALDEZ AREA. CORDOVA MAY SEE
RAIN MIXED IN OR ALL RAIN LATER ON WITH WARM AIR THAT IS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THIS SYSTEM.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COOK INLET REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
LARGE BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD INCREASE AS ONE HEADS NORTHWARD INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE IS BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE IN THE LONGER TERM AS THE JET STREAM MOVES TO
THE NORTH AND INTO THE BERING SEA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT
THE BERING SEA MORE INTO THE STORM TRACK WITH SOME RIDGING POSSIBLE
OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE AT THAT TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 08